Santos Tour Down Under 2024 – Stage 3
Some win by the young Toro. Helpers burned and some hesitation. Sometimes you just need a few seconds. Tomorrow / this night we have another sprint showdown.
Route
A tough start which I don’t really know what to expect.
The finale is what matters. Things will settle down, and the sprinters will have 110 km to organize a potential chase. The women’s edition had an identical finish in Campelltown (stage 1), which saw Ally Wollaston take the stage win. I would categorize it as a boulevard sprint. The road becomes very wide with 1 km to go, so you can survive with a short sprint train.
Weather
If you wanted to, you could destroy the race early on with the tailwind. I still don’t see it happening. With a long headwind heading to the line, there should be more helpers willing do the dirty work and than attackers up the road. A real headwind sprint.
How will the stage unfold?
There is a chance of teams putting the hammer down early on. I’m just not sure who can execute such a mission in January. Therefore, I will go for the sprint.
I do think we will see a few teams interested in the Lyndoch sprint. Strong (ISPT) and Narvaez (INEOS) are some of the strong contestants for them tomorrow.
Contenders
Welsford – he has the best set of helpers with Mullen and Van Poppel. I have a feeling they will do well again tomorrow, it just seems like Mullen is the best third here by a long way.
Bauhaus – knows his way around the front of the group. He will fight for yet another podium spot. He opens his sprint fairly early sometimes, which can be a problem in a headwind. However, he has the speed to win.
Girmay – 4th and 3rd. He is knocking on the door. Well, main issue is his positioning. Again today, starting a bit further back than what I would have liked (and the team not chasing with that many riders in the front group, eh?) They seem disorganized. On the flipside, starting a bit further back in a headwind sprint is sometimes the best move.
Ewan – a headwind sprint you say? His type of sprint. He made it to the finale today which is a big sign of improvement. The legs are better and they should be day by day. We will have to see if he can put out more speed than the first day. Tuck in pocket-rocket.
Kanter – consistently showing good sprints. A top-5 is possible.
Viviani – let’s see if the legs get better. With Tarling, Ganna and Narvaez, they have the speed and power to dominate the last km. Otherwise, I hope to seem them bringing a good showing for Narvaez.
Who will win?
A headwind sprint Down Under. Caleb Ewan.
