La Vuelta Ciclista a España 2023 – Stage 19
It is time to see if the teams with sprinters can manage to control the stage.
Route
A flat stage heading southeast.
Finale
A boulevard sprint. Last corner is so far out, you’ve plenty of time to move up inside the last 2000m
Weather
Not enough to have echelons. A headwind sprint, but barely any wind.
How will the stage unfold?
The battle for the sprinters jersey is on but is it really a fight? Groves sits 36 points clear. A stage win tomorrow would certainly make him happier going into stage 20. I think it is as simple as this; catch the breakaway just after the intermediate sprint. That way, Evenepoel scores as few points as possible. Plus, Evenepoel shouldn’t look for the jersey at all. I guess the Twitter drama is having an effect on me, I see problems where they aren’t. Evenepoel will look to save energy for stage 20.
We only have two sprinters with a win. Molano and Alpecin. The latter will do their due job to get a sprint. EF still haven’t figured out a way to set up M. van den Berg and Dainese too is without a very good result. That is three teams we are reliant on to chase after 18 stages. That doesn’t mean the breakaway does not stand a chance. Alpecin and DSM are down to six riders.
Contenders
Groves – starts as the favorite. He is one of the two fastest here but things haven’t been the same since Gaze had to abandon. We’ve seen they lack the power to dominate the sprints now. For him, it is all about defending the jersey. With just five domestiques, will they even chase?
Dainese – we are at a point in a Grand Tour where he usually comes out and shines. Stage 17 and a pan flat day, that was the recipe for the Giro d’Italia stage win earlier this year. How much help can he get from the team? I think most of them would rather save bullets for stage 20.
Molano – he and Oliviera is a deadly duo. Another fast man, the fastest here with Groves. Can he expect the team to help him? No way UAE will get organized for their sprinter, they can barely do it for the captain.
Van den Berg – no luck so far. That means EF have to set up their sprinter, they will be 100% dedicated to the sprint as they have zero results to speak of. After a tough Grand Tour, I think his chances will be better.
Theuns – always consistent enough to fight for a top-10. He is smart enough to go in the breakaway too.
Ganna – breakaway/sprint option. Last chance. He has had plenty of days to recover.
Pedersen – breakaway/sprint option. I really like him as a rider. He tends to do well late in a Grand Tour.
Denz – used a lot of energy today but the tank isn’t empty. I think we will see him in the breakaway.
Kron – going very well just now.
Evenepoel – you can never write this man off, can you? I hope he waits for stage 20.
Stars
⭐⭐⭐⭐ C. Pedersen
⭐⭐⭐ Kron, Ganna
⭐⭐ Theuns, Molano, Dainese
⭐ Evenepoel, M. van den Berg, Groves, Denz
Who will win?
Perhaps reaching 200 previews makes it difficult to determine the outcome. I will take another day for the breakaway as there aren’t enough domestiques to control the day. I will take a win for Casper Pedersen, few will beat him in a sprint from a group and he has the engine to solo too. If I’m wrong, I think Dainese takes the win from the peloton.
