Postnord Danmark Rundt 2023 – Stage 1
We kick things off with a stage in the northern part of Jutland.
Route
Up or down all day but the hills in Denmark are not very steep, until they get to Aalborg. Here, they do 3.5 laps.
As mentioned in the GC preview, some of the riders will know the climbs, as they are used in the Danish Nationals. The circuit is different but a good portion of it is identical from what has been used before.
Three times up Skovbakkevej – it is a steep kicker, just as we’ve seen in Glasgow the last few days.
Nordtoften is a bit easier.
Finale
Difficult to move or unless you do a late move. That is why Nordtoften is important too, you need to move up early. My best guess is to smash it there, and since some of the finale is downhill, you don’t burn as many matches. The last corner is 1100m from the line.
Weather
Grey sky but 23-24 degrees C and not a very strong wind.
How will the stage unfold?
It is an interesting one. A break will get up the road and I would advise Trek-Segafredo to monitor it. They know that some of the Danish riders are capable of an upset. I think a few teams with a sprinter may sit back and let other teams do the dirty work.
Once on the circuit, you can really put everyone into difficulty. Teams will look to drop Jakobsen. Skovbakkevej may only be 300-400m at 13% but that is still a 800 watt sprint for the ones who are willing to try. That is something that will sting a bit.
It is really up to EF and Trek-Segafredo to make sure that happens and they will. At the nationals, we saw it is these repeated efforts that makes people blow up completely. We only have three laps, I do not think it will be that decisive.
Contenders
Mads Pedersen – it will be a long day for them to control but they must do it. That likely means they can end up a bit isolated on the circuit but as we saw at Worlds, Mads knows how to position himself in a peloton. He will aim to win the stage, gaining important bonus seconds doing so.
Marijn van der Berg – he should be the choice for EF. They have a very attacking team but they should aim to drop Jakobsen and then take it from there. Is he fast enough to beat Pedersen? I think it will be closer than I want to admit.
Klaris – knows the climbs well and is pretty quick on the line after a few climbs.
Wærenskjold – will it prove to difficult for him? I really don’t think it will. The team supporting him is very strong with Norman and Larsen coming straight from the track WC. They got a lot of speed inside the last km, I think Søren is one of the favorites for tomorrow.
Jakobsen – all depends on how the circuit is raced. I do not think the three sprints up Skovbakkevej are to his advantage at all. The team must ensure he is one of the first riders coming on to the climb and then use a lap getting him back up there. They will hope to do a late surge inside that final km.
Casper Pedersen – if it is too difficult, Casper is the man they should ride for. A brilliant climber and sprinter.
Lund Andresen – he has been close to his first win for some time now. He is fairly strong uphill too. He has Rodenberg to help him, another Dane who comes from the track and did well in Scotland.
Skjelmose – attacker #1. There is a scenario where they may have to, if the team has been used up.
Søren Kragh – attacker #2. Very difficult to catch on his best days.
Kamp – breakaway option #1. Well, if no one is eager to chase due to saving energy, Alexander is the type of rider that will try to get in the morning breakaway and fool the rest.
Stars
⭐⭐⭐⭐ Pedersen
⭐⭐⭐ Jakobsen, Marijn van der Berg,
⭐⭐ Skjelmose, Lund Andresen, Wærenskjold
⭐ Kamp, SKA, Klaris, Casper Pedersen
Who will win?
It is a tough one to get right and I’m just uncertain which sprinters will make it. I will take a win for Mads Pedersen.
