Tour de France 2023 – Stage 20
The last mountain stage, finishing in Alsace.
Route
A short stage with close to 3500 climbing meters. It should be great to watch.
They start the stage with Ballon d’Alsace, it is likely the breakaway forms here. That means it will contain climbers, and since the gradients are merely 5%, we could see rouleurs too.
It is a big day for Gall and Ciccone in particular, they will both want to be the first rider over Petit Ballon and Col du Platzerwasel.
After Col du Platzerwasel, the riders have a short plateau of 7 km before the race is over.
Weather
Fairly cold and a bit windy. We have 5 m/s from W/SW. That means a crosswind for most of the day.
How will the stage unfold?
The winner of the race has been found. I would even argue the who podium has been found. But that is the spot you can fight for tomorrow, the third spot on the podium.
What kind of stage does Jumbo-Visma want? I do not think they care too much for another stage win. It could be a very good stage for Sepp Kuss, to earn a stage win or atleast the shot to do so.
Will Pogacar bounce back somewhat? It seems unlikely. It is odd he has these off-days but honestly it is refreshing to see even him have issues. For him, it just seems like mountain-marathon days is the issue.
So, that really leaves it up for the breakaway to take the stage win. I can’t see who is going to control the stage or who can control the stage. I think we will see a lot of riders inside top-15 try and move up in the GC, so expect everyone else besides A. Yates and Pogacar to likely try the breakaway.
Contenders
Vingegaard – I do not think anyone can drop him. However, it is a very difficult stage to control and he does not have the fastest sprint from a small group.
Pogacar – if anyone can bounce back it is this man. I think he it will be difficult for the team to defend 3rd which is what they should aim for. It means he maybe should work for A. Yates.
A. Yates – he has a tough job tomorrow, defending the last spot on the podium.
S. Yates – he surprised med on the TT and the day after. He seems to be going well. He will hope to move up to third but that will be difficult.
Rodriguez – unfortunately, he seems to be fading. He will hope to stay on 4th.
Gaudu – breakaway hope #1.
Landa – breakaway hope #2.
Ciccone – breakaway hope #3.
Gall – breakaway hope #4.
Johannesen – breakaway hope #5.
Stars
⭐⭐⭐⭐ Gaudu
⭐⭐⭐ Gall, Vingegaard
⭐⭐ Landa, A. Yates, Pogacar
⭐ Johannesen, Ciccone, Rodriguez, S. Yates
Who will win?
I will take a breakaway win for David Gaudu.
