Tour de France 2023 – Stage 18
A flat stage. Is anyone willing to control?
Route
Finale
4500m left: Roundabout, pass on both sides. Left side quickest.
3250m left: Left turn in roundabout. Narrow.
2600m left: Roundabout, pass on right side.
1500m left: Left turn.
500m left: Road becomes wider, but looks like they stick to 6.30m width nonetheless.
Weather
A hot day.
How will the stage unfold?
Jayco-Alula (8 riders left), Quick-Step (will the really work for Mørkøv), Bora-Hansgrohe (8 riders), Intermarché (7 riders), DSM (Bardet out, all in for Welsford) and UNO-X (8 riders) all have a sprinter that has not yet won a stage here. That should have plenty of teams willing to work for their rider. After a rest day, a time trial we could see them being relatively fresh but I really doubt it after stage 17.
So therefore, there should be teams willing to work. Especially Jayco-Alula and Uno-X are two teams, I imagine wants to work for it. I feel Alpecin-Fenix is debatable, they really just need to get Jasper to Paris – imagine him crashing out, it would simply not be worth it. Trek-Segafredo may work too but Pedersen already has his stage win.
Some breakaway riders will hope they can fool the sprinters, it has been done before (2021 TDF, 2022 Giro). If the breakaway has strong riders, it is mighty difficult to get them back. Let’s say they let Mohoric, Bettiol, Asgreen, Stuyven and Politt go, just to name some, I would like to see who can bring them back and still have lead-out men left for the sprint.
Contenders
Phillipsen – he will be very difficult to beat. They do not have to control the stage and that means they have more numbers near the end. If it comes down to a sprint, we have all seen he is the fastest.
Groenewegen – He and Mezgec have become a better duo throughout the race. Is he quick enough to beat Phillipsen? I think he is the only one that can.
Pedersen – he has good legs just now. Will he dare to try fromt he breakaway?
Meeus – Mighty quick but he and Van Poppel have not found the synergy to compete for the stage win.
Girmay – he should be one of the sprinters who still has something left in the legs this late. I think we may see him on the podium tomorrow.
Kristoff – when the going gets tough, the tough gets going. I expect Kristoff to fight for a top-10.
Wout van Aert – he will be up there. He can recharge energy like none other.
Mohoric – breakaway hope #1
Asgreen – breakaway hope #2
Politt – breakaway hope #3
Stars
⭐⭐⭐⭐ Phillipsen
⭐⭐⭐ Mohoric, Pedersen
⭐⭐ Wout van Aert, Groenewegen, Girmay
⭐ Politt, Asgreen, Meeus, Welsford.
Who will win?
He seems unbeatable, a win for Phillipsen.
