Tour de France 2023 – Stage 16

Route

A fantastic looking time trial, one that suits the climbers.

We have two climbs, the first coming after just 2.5 km of racing, that is 1.6 km at 9.1%.

A descent awaits the riders with a short plateau, the total distance is 6.4 km. After the plateau, it becomes more technical. You can lose a lot of time if you hit the brakes more than you need. It is followed by the valley of 6.3 km.

After the sharp turn with 6 km left, it is uphill to the finish. The first 3 km at 9%, the last 3 km at 5.4%.

Weather

A chance of wet roads early on. Weather is pretty much the same.

Contenders

Pogacar – he has spent a lot of time on his TT bike after the broken wrist. It is incredible that he can keep putting pressure on Jonas. With the shorter climbs, one could say it does favor Tadej, but tomorrow it is about pacing and not accelerating. It will be very close.

Vingegaard – he is very gifted against the clock and what we saw yesterday tells me, he is only going to get better. He has the yellow jersey, which is not optimal, but Pogacar has the white so it evens out. He gifted the stage win last year to Wout van Aert, I do not that will be the case tomorrow. He should still be in yellow.

Wout van Aert – he is not climbing as well as last year but he is still Wout van Aert. I do wonder if he will save energy for once in his life, Col de la Loze is waiting on Wednesday.

Skjelmose – what does he have left? I think enough for a top-10.

A. Yates – UAE with two for the podium? I think it is achieveable, I underestimated him – he is better than expected. With that said, I never believed for a second he could beat Jonas.

Bilbao – his time trials are hit or miss. I think tomorrow will see him in the top-10.

Rodriguez – he seems to be the best of the rest. He was 4th in the time trial last year in the Vuelta, I think he will hope for a top-5 tomorrow.

S. Yates – form seems to be going the wrong direction, as usual this late in a Grand Tour. His time trials have been very good the last two seasons, he should hope to go well.

N. Oliviera – top-10 candidate.

Castroviejo – top-10 candidate.

Stars

⭐⭐⭐⭐ Vingegaard
⭐⭐⭐ A. Yates, Pogacar
⭐⭐ S. Yates, Rodriguez, Wout van Aert
⭐ Castroviejo, N. Oliviera, Bilbao, Skjelmose

Who will win?

I will take a win for the Dane.