Tour de France 2023 – Stage 10
After a rest day, the riders will start a week that holds many chances for the breakaway. Including tomorrow.
Route
Not much fuzz to talk about here. Hilly start, expect climbers and rouleurs all mixed up and up the road.
And then a closer look on the finale. A real fuga de la fuga, some of them will attack and get a lead before Côte de la Chapelle-Marcousse. Not very steep and a long descent almost to the line. You don’t know where the break from the break happens. It is easier than you think getting to the line. I would almost advice you to attack before the last 35 to build a lead. There are a few tricky places on the descent and the road is not very wide.
Weather
Hot. Wind from the SW. It is a headwind start until the second categorized climb is finished. The third categorized climb is with a tailwind, so my guess is that is the latest point of forms (Col de Croix Saint-Robert). Then, with 60 km to go the riders will have a tailwind home. The big issue is, we may need a route chance as heavy thunder may impact the race.
*Wind at 16:00.
Echelons?
So, around 16:00 – 18:00 when they are at the most southern point of the route, this is where the wind is strongest. It is mostly tailwind but there is a short section where we can see it being used.
58.5 km – 50 km left. Near La Godiville. San Luca says 27 km/h, Mywindsock says 7.8 m/s. A short section but where you can catch a few off guard. Narrow roads and wide open terrain.
The last categorized climb has the best direction if we want to see crosswind action, unfortunately it is forested on the left side on the road which will block most of the wind. It does offer 1.5 km of crosswinds at the foot of the climb.
How will the stage unfold.
It should be a day for the breakaway but you never know. Despite the hilly start, the first two categorized climbs are with a headwind (4 m/s). So either we see the first move go as on stage 6 where none could manage to cooperate well enough to get up there or it will go quite late which is on the third categorized climb. On anywhere in between – you can’t tell in a Grand Tour. Since nothing is for certain, having a diesel and being good on 5-6% is optimal, I think we are looking at the rouleurs and not so much the pure climbers.
Will we see echelons, that will impact the race a whole lot. It looks more like a tailwind than a crosswind to me but don’t write it off. The finale actually has a lot of descending, if you look at the last 70 km. We are on quite narrow roads too and with rain looming, you must be technically gifted too.
It really looks like a fuga de la fuga stage to be. Who has multiple riders in the breakaway. I do not think we will see a showdown of 25-30 riders get to the foot of Côte de la Chapelle-Marcousse and see who is the fastest uphill, that’s not how it unfolds.
It suits the riders who can handle a bit of climbing, are technically gifted and does not mind a bit of rain. Having a few teammates up the road with you surely would be a bonus too.
Contenders
I will break it down into teams. I think two teams in particular stand a good chance due to their numbers. I will highlight the ten riders who goes into the start section.
EF – they start with a strong set of riders and they should just look to get up the road. I think Powless has spent too much energy to fight for a win, he just seems to lack a few percent to win here. Magnus Cort has been climbing well and not been in the breakaway yet. I think he has been smart and waited for the second week, I know he has a few stages coming up that he would like to go for. He also won after the rest day last year, so it does not affect him much. Alberto Bettiol is the second option the team has, despite him also racing the Giro d’Italia, I see him being able to perform well. He finished in the front group on stage 1 and closed Skjelmoses move yesterday. James Shaw brings the underdog option, he climbed well the day he was out in front.
Bahrain – Victorious – the second team I see having a lot of options. Is it too early for Bilbao to be allowed up the road? He is fantastic downhill and the form is good enough to win from the breakaway. He also has the fast sprint on the flat that surely is helpful. It should not come as a surprise to see Mohoric‘s name here. He is going very well and the terrain is simply perfect for him tomorrow. The other two options are Fred Wright, who I would like to see do something else than carrying bottles and protecting Landa and of course Nikias Arndt, who has the brains to work as a fuga de la fuga.
Jorgensen – going well just now, he knows how to sniff out a breakaway and do remember he is an strong classics rider too. We saw the other day how clever he is, he will know to look for the early moves from the breakaway.
Skjelmose – time to go for breakaways. Despite his light stature, he knows how to race in tough conditions. Being from Amager, he is used to the wind. He showed he has problems on the longer climbs and therefore tomorrow should suit him.
Wout van Aert – must start as the favorite tomorrow I imagine. The main thing is, will he work for Jonas and hope they can create a split? I am simply not sure. He will be the favorite from the breakaway and from the bunch sprint, let’s see how Jumbo-Visma decide to use him.
Van der Poel – he has done superb leadouts but he is not going uphill very quickly at the moment. The lower gradients is definitively to his advantage, the same goes the rain and the descending.
Madouas – a strong classics rider who is going well at the moment. The lower gradients should be to his liking.
Johannesen – the form is growing in the right direction. I assume since he is from Norway, he is used to a rainy and windy day. He is also quite quick for a climber.
Stars
⭐⭐⭐⭐ Mohoric
⭐⭐⭐ Cort, Wout van Aert
⭐⭐ Jorgensen, MvdP, Skjelmose
⭐ Madouas, Bettiol, Bilbao, Johannesen
Who will win?
As there is a chance Wout van Aert will work in the peloton, I will take a win for Matej Mohoric. The technicality of the stage makes him a very good option.
