Tour de France – KOM Preview
Every now and again, it is fun to try something completely different. This is what will happen now, me trying to figure out, who will take the Polka dots home.
The Rules.
The best climber classification is established by adding together points obtained on all passes or climbs,
according to the following scale:
– super-category (hors catégorie) passes, climbs or summit finishes: 20-15-12-10-8-6-4-2 points
respectively for first 8 riders (77)
– category 1 passes, climbs or summit finishes: 10-8-6-4-2-1 points respectively to the first 6 riders (31)
– category 2 passes or climbs: 5-3-2-1 points respectively to the first 4 riders
– category 3 passes or climbs: 2-1 points respectively to the first 2 riders
– category 4 passes or climbs: 1 point to the first rider
Double points will be awarded at the top of the Col de la Loze, the highest summit of the 2023 Tour de France, on stage 17.
Stages and their importance.
NB: I have decided to do it as points total for each stage. I think that gives a more fair view, as the KOM winner/current leader does not need to win all the KOM sprints but rather be in contention for them. There are some days that you must be in the breakaway.
Stage 1: 3, 3, 4, 2, 3 (total: 20 KOM points)
Stage 2: 3, 4, 3, 4, 2 (total : 18 KOM points)
Stage 3: 3, 4, 3, 3 (total: 8 KOM points)
Stage 4: 4 (total: 1 KOM point)
Stage 5: HC, 3, 1 (total: 101 KOM points)
Stage 6: 3, 1, HC, 1 (total: 142 KOM points)
Stage 7: 4 (total: 1 KOM point)
Stage 8: 3, 4, 4 (total: 5 KOM points).
Stage 9: 4, 4, 3, HC (total: 82 KOM points)
Stage 10: 3, 3, 2, 3, 3 (total: 22 KOM points)
Stage 11: 4, 4, 4 (total: 3 KOM points)
Stage 12: 3, 3, 3, 2, 2 (total: 29 KOM points)
Stage 13: HC (total: 77 KOM points)
Stage 14: 3, 1, 1, 1, HC (total: 173 KOM points)
Stage 15: 1, 1, 3, 2, 1 (total: 106 KOM points)
Stage 16: 2 (total: 10 points)
Stage 17: 1, 1, 2, HC (total: 231 KOM points) – *Double points will be awarded at the top of the Col de la Loze, the highest summit of the 2023 Tour de France, on stage 17.
Stage 18: 4, 4 (total: 2 KOM points)
Stage 19: 4, 3 (total: 4 KOM points)
Stage 20: 2, 2, 2, 3, 1, 1 (total: 95 KOM points)
Stage 21: 4 (total: 1 KOM point)
So sum it up and to visualize it – I made a graph!
How does the stages with a lot of points compare to breakaway days?
This is in accordance to my own GC preview. I admit that splitting it up like this does not tell the whole story.
Stage 5: HC, 3, 1 (total: 101 KOM points) – GC sprint
Stage 6: 3, 1, HC, 1 (total: 142 KOM points) – Breakaway
Stage 9: 4, 4, 3, HC (total: 82 KOM points) – GC
Stage 13: HC (total: 77 KOM points) – GC
Stage 14: 3, 1, 1, 1, HC (total: 173 KOM points) – GC
Stage 15: 1, 1, 3, 2, 1 (total: 106 KOM points) – Breakaway
Stage 17: 1, 1, 2, HC (total: 231 KOM points) – *Double points will be awarded at the top of the Col de la Loze, the highest summit of the 2023 Tour de France, on stage 17 – GC
Stage 20: 2, 2, 2, 3, 1, 1 (total: 95 KOM points) – Breakaway
When we decide only to focus on these stages, it is clear that it seems to be quite even between the breakaway and the GC. It is also clear that it would be wise aiming for stage 5 and stage 6 early on to build a lead – the GC men will simply score too many in the last week. Then, look to save bullets until stage 14, stage 15 and stage 17. Col de la Loze is likely where you can win or lose it.
If we cut it down to the three most important days, stage 6, stage 14 and stage 17 – most of them have the advantage of having an early climb. Stage 6 can be a bit more difficult. Therefore, I think in order to win at as breakaway rider, you must have this as your sole focus.
The contenders
The last 3/5 editions has seen the GC winner take the KOM jersey.
Ciccone – He has said this is his clear goal after he could not participate in the Giro d’Italia. Therefore, he is in my book the only one I can think off beating Pogacar or Vingegaard in the battle for the KOM jersey.
Alaphillipe – Dauphiné was a positive sign, the French Nationals was not. I wonder if the heat simply just took him out and if that is the case, it will be hard winning the KOM jersey for him again.
Bernal – I just have a feeling the downwards spiral INEOS have put themselves in, taking their two best GT riders to the Giro d’Italia is going to cost them. I think an INEOS rider will go very well in the KOM classification.
S. Yates – I doubt he will be satisfied with a top-10 in the GC. I think the KOM jersey is much more realistic than the podium. What likely will happen is he wins a stage and drops out as usual.
Vingegaard – winner of last year’s polka dots. I have a feeling he will be the first rider over Col de la Loze and that means 40 KOM points – which is almost half of what you need to win. The thing that is different this year is likely he will be the one needing to try and drop Pogacar further into the race. That means if we see some long-range attacks, Vingegaard will likely get more points.
Pogacar – but if we talk about uphill finishes that should end in a sprint / GC sprint, Pogacar will likely get a few points too.
Who will take it?
I honestly only believe three riders can win this from what I know. Ciccone, Vingegaard and Pogacar. Since I have already pointed my fingers at Jonas Vingegaard, it should be between him and Ciccone. Therefore, I will go for Giulio Ciccone, with Jonas and Pogacar being the nearest rivals.
