Tour de France 2023 – GC Preview

I can’t believe it is time again for another Grand Tour. It feels like the Giro d’Italia just ended. In this preview, I will go through each stage and my initial view on the outcome of the stage. Then, a short section the team strength of Jumbo-Visma vs UAE. I think only two can realistically win this race. Then, we talk about the other contenders – someone has to join Vingegaard and Pogacar on the podium.

The importance in relation to the GC, the stages will be given 1-5 ⭐.

Stage 1

Some stage to start with. Initial thoughts are, who will control the stage? I think we will see a nervous bunch, especially among the GC teams. Côte de Pike is difficult enough to create gaps, we have 800m at 14.6%. The uphill sprint will also play a sprint too.

Outcome: GC sprint.

Importance in relation to the GC: ⭐⭐⭐

Stage 2

Another typical Basque stage. This one features Jaizkibel, which we often see raced in Donostia San Sebastian Klasikoa and the male and female Itzulia Basque Country races. It is a difficult stage to predict. Too difficult for the sprinters, too easy for the GC men. I think it looks more difficult than it actually is.

Outcome: Reduced bunch sprint – with a few sprinters potentially surviving. No GC action.

Importance in relation to the GC: ⭐⭐

Stage 3

A day where we could see a strong break get up the road but they will need a lot of time to deny the sprinters their first shot at a stage win. 3000 Climbing meters is a lot, but most of it is in the first half. It is all about letting a small breakaway up the road that can be controlled.

Outcome: Bunch sprint.

Importance in relation to the GC: ⭐

Stage 4

This one should be a bunch sprint too. The finish is on Circuit de Nogaro, it looks mighty special and difficult too.

Outcome: Bunch sprint.

Importance in relation to the GC: ⭐

Stage 5

It is a very difficult stage to predict. The flat start is not ideal for the breakaway, you need to be a good climber on this day to win. The last 4 km of Col de Marie Blanque are 11.6% – that is bloody tough. With the top being 18.5 km from the line, I think the most likely scenario is a GC sprint. There is a long descent afterwards, meaning it is only 8 km of flat.

Outcome: GC sprint.

Importance in relation to the GC: ⭐⭐⭐

Stage 6

At this point, the sprinters will think – what the hell happened to the first week of chances for a stage win. Col d’Aspin and Col du Tourmalet is a lovely combination, last time used in 2018. The last climb does not ring any bells, it is steepest towards the top with 5.1 km at 7.9%. Does any of the teams have a big plan for Tourmalet? I think this can end up being a damp squid.

Outcome: Breakaway

Importance in relation to the GC: ⭐⭐⭐

Stage 7

And the sprinters are happy again! I think this is the flattest stage there is.

Outcome: Bunch sprint

Importance in relation to the GC: ⭐

Stage 8

Another day for the sprinters. We have a few short climbs – we will likely see Lidl-Trek and Alpecin try and test the sprinters from the other teams. The last 800m are 4.3% – it is a long drag to the line.

Outcome: Bunch sprint

Importance in relation to the GC: ⭐

Stage 9

The Puy de Dôme. The last 4 km are 12%. I think this will be the first big GC battle as they finally finish uphill. We will have to see if that will be for the stage win, a few riders are likely tempted getting a jumpstart going in the breakaway.

Outcome: GC

Importance in relation to the GC: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Stage 10

Your classic breakaway stage.

Outcome: Breakaway.

Importance in relation to the GC: ⭐

Stage 11

In Massif-Central, you never really know if the wind will come out and play a factor. It could on this day, racing north of Clermont-Ferrand. The most likely outcome is still a sprinter will take this but I will give it two stars, because the wind can play a role.

Outcome: Bunch sprint.

Importance in relation to the GC: ⭐⭐

Stage 12

The second stage that screams breakaway. I think Col de la Croix Rosier is to far from the line to play any role.

Outcome: Breakaway

Importance in relation to the GC: ⭐

Stage 13

A flat start on a short stage – there are just some indications the breakaway will not be good enough uphill to keep the GC men from having a fight for the stage win. Grand Colombier, last used here in 2020 without too many GC gaps. The second part of the climb is just not steep enough. It suits the diesels.

Outcome: GC

Importance in relation to the GC: ⭐⭐⭐

Stage 14

What a wonderful GC stage. Col du Jouex Plane was last used in Critérium du Dauphiné in 2021, where Mark Padun did a wonderful job winning. A downhill descent worries me – especially to the line. The opening 50 km are good news for the breakaway. We will see if Col de la Ramaz will be used by a team to destroy the chances for the breakaway but we should certainly see a very strong breakaway trying to take the stage.

Outcome: GC

Importance in relation to the GC: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Stage 15

Another cracking stage. Côte des Amerands and Saint-Gervais Mont-Blanc looks like a very difficult combo and with Col de la Croix de Fry, it could turn in to a day for the GC. Personally, I say this profile makes it look harder than it is. I think it is a day for the breakaway.

Outcome: Breakaway

Importance in relation to the GC: ⭐⭐⭐

Stage 16

It is time for a time trial. The amount of climbing will likely limit the damage for some but it is still a very important stage. This is where Pogacar and Vingegaard have a major advantage. The gradients on the last climb make it a difficult one to get correct.

Outcome: GC battle

Importance in relation to the GC: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Stage 17

The stage with the highest amount of climbing meters. It is a very tough stage and the one I’m looking most forward to seeing. The breakaway will likely form on Col des Saisies or Cormet de Roselend and people from just outside the top-10 will try to sneak in it. Col de la Loze looks criminal. The last part of the ascend is 11 km at 8.5% – 2300m above sea level finishing at Altiport.

Outcome: GC battle

Importance in relation to the GC: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Stage 18

The sprinters get another chance. The thing is, this deep into a Grand Tour – the breakaway may just fool them.

Outcome: Bunch sprint

Importance in relation to the GC: ⭐

Stage 19

The same goes for this stage. The breakaway will sniff its chances and most of them are just happy they reach Paris soon. I think this one can be a breakaway day.

Outcome: Breakaway

Importance in relation to the GC: ⭐

Stage 20

One last chance. A short stage where the last two climbs certainly can play a role. With a flat part at the top, the gaps can get bigger as the ones out front usually has more power in the legs than the ones chasing. Still, I think this will be one from the breakaway – they usually do late in the Tour.

Outcome: Breakaway

Importance in relation to the GC: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Stage 21

Iconic and epic. The sprinters will have their last shot at taking something home.

Outcome: Bunch sprint.

Importance in relation to the GC: ⭐

To sum it up

Stage 9, 14, 16, 17 and 20. These are the stages that will determine the winner. It is a mix of steeper and short climbs and longer efforts plus a time trial. You need the whole package. Still, I think this year’s route has shorter climbs if you compare it to last year. You really need to go well on double digits.

To me, it still does look like you need to have a strong 3rd week. Stage 17 (in my book the most important stage) and stage 20 are both stages where you need to be in top shape. These are cruel mountains they must pass.

Jumbo-Visma and UAE.

Let’s kick it off with Jumbo-Visma.

Captain: Jonas Vingegaard
Mountain domestiques: Kelderman, Wout van Aert, Benoot & Kuss.
Luxury domestiques: Hooydonck, Laporte, Van Baarle.

It is tough to draw the line here. Van Baarle can be argued as a medium mountain domestique – do not get surprised when you see him being an absolute beast uphill. It is a team where Kelderman, Wout and Kuss really need to step up. Kuss did the Giro d’Italia, still he will be there in the third week. Kelderman showed great progress in Suisse and Wout van Aert will be ready for the Tour de France. It is a very strong set of riders, especially when you consider the power on the flat and medium mountain stages.

Captain: Tadej Pogacar
Mountain domestiques: Adam Yates, Majka, Soler, Grossschartner
Luxury domestiques: Novak, Bjerg, Laengen

Now, a lot have been said by this upgraded team from last year. Do remember, a lot of them had covid or injuries last year. I will say that the team does look stronger in the mountains. I have also seen people arguing for having A. Yates as a secondary captain – and I could not disagree more. It is a very well rounded team but they will not be able to do play two cards against Jonas.

I think both teams look very similar in terms of strength. If I had to chose between one of the two, I would say UAE does look better this year but none of them looks superior.

Contenders

Vingegaard – He always seems to impress me. Maybe it is difficult due to the fact I’m trying to stay as objective as possible and he is Danish. He has looked world class all season, not in Paris-Nice though but there were reasons for it. He has bossed everyone around this year, proving he is a the same out-of-this-world league with only one man else, his closest rival Pogacar. His force lies in the long and steep climb, the long efforts. This year does not have many of them, therefore it is good see he is going well on shorter climbs too. I think it will be difficult to beat him.

Pogacar – he is the only rider that can do so. An injury has kept him away from racing at the World Tour but I still think he will start in Basque ready to win. He is such an exceptional rider and this year’s route suits him more – loads of short and steep inclines, where he has a clear advantage over many. He brings better help with him this time around, something which will be necessary.

Hindley – he always works all year for one goal only. This year, it is the Tour de France. I was positively surprised by his level at the Dauphiné, he is usually not a rider that gets good results outside Grand Tours. He is a serious contender for the podium, he is that good when everything clicks.

Skjelmose – the dark horse is a bit too much to say about him. For Skjelmose, I see this as another important test. He has only completed one Grand Tour and this is his first Tour de France. As we have already seen a few youngsters defy what the norm is, I wonder if Skjelmose can too. The big question is, how does his body respond in the third week? We have all seen in week-long races that he could fight for a good spot.

Carapaz – near impossible to say how he will do. He is the same as Hindley, you can not really measure how well he goes by looking at his latest result. He is always on another level in a Grand Tour. He was on the podium here in 2021, something he would love to do again.

O’Connor – hopefully he avoids crashes and injuries this edition. Third in Dauphiné was a good sign – I think we will see Ben O’Connor fighting for a top-5.

Landa – I think given the route this is a better edition for him than Bilbao. He was not at his best in Dauphiné, maybe they tried something different. He is usually very consistent and the short amount of kilometers against the clock is something that gives him the chance to end on the podium.

Gaudu – I will be honest, I do not think that highly of him despite his good results. He was not far off Pogacar at Paris-Nice and he was 4th here last year. He should really be a top contender for the podium. Not a lot of time trial kilometers and a lot of double digits which suits his stature. A top-5 contender.

Mas – 17th at the Dauphine. Not what you would expect but I will still not write him off. He is consistent and he has quite a good team to support him this year. I think the podium is realistic.

Gall – He has to be mentioned after that performance in Suisse. Yes, he will lose realistically two minutes against the clock but I still think he can finish in the top-10 with the old G. Martin tactic.

Stars

⭐⭐⭐⭐ Vingegaard
⭐⭐⭐ Pogacar, Mas
⭐⭐ Gaudu, Hindley, O’Connor
⭐ Skjelmose, Landa, Carapaz, Gall

Who will win?

I will take a win for Jonas Vingegaard. He just looks better this year than last year, which I thought was near impossible.