The Danish Road National Championship 2023

Somehow, the organizers have found close to 2000 climbing meters in Denmark.

Route

Raced in the Northern part of Jutland. The laps in Aalborg are the same as the ones in 2022 – with one very small change. It is actually a fairly hilly route, despite the gradients rarely going double digits. Now, the first half of the race is on the countryside, the wind may play a role out there.

Still, it is more likely according to me to see the difference being made in the circuit in Aalborg. They ride it 7 times and most of the riders will know it from 2022.

There are two climbs to worry about, Skovbakkevej is the first one and the toughest one. The red section is 200m at 12.5%. The whole climb takes just shy of 90 seconds for the best.

The second climb is Nordtoften. Very steady for 500m at 5.8%.

Weather

The Danish Summer has arrived early and has been here for a long time all ready. It seems like Sunday is the transition day for that, it will stay dry in Aalborg but the temperatures will be just above 20 degrees C. Not a lot of wind to report either.

That makes it different from last year where it rained a lot in the last laps.

How will the race unfold?

Last year, we saw Alexander Kamp win – actually from the breakaway. The Danish Nationals, as many other I imagine is very difficult to predict. Who allowed Kamp up the road last season? A rider who was 5th in Amstel Gold Race 2022.

So, the conti teams need to make sure, either of these two scenarios. 1) No WT riders allowed up the road or 2), then the teams are represented as well and with a numerical advantages. The first scenario actually speaks for the WT teams to some degree, as they can wait to use their riders. The second scenario is more risky, we saw how tough the WT riders were doing despite them being in the early breakaway.

I think it up to a few teams to decide what to do, looking at the quality and numbers. I think a lot of strong WT riders arriving here solo want to get up the road. Now, that will force a responce from the larger teams, namely Trek and Quick-Step – they want to have some fun too.

The domino effect will continue, teams with numbers (Uno-X), (Leopard), (Coloquick) and (Restaurant Suri – Carl Ras) will have to spend domestiques while WT riders burn their matches, hoping eventually their opponents leader’s (the WT riders) have burned some matches. Otherwise, they need to follow attacks and sit on wheels. Play the numbers.

Conclusion: I could go on all day and still not give a definite answer. I also know too few of the riders here. What I always see and hear is expect the unexpected. The route does look difficult enough to create gaps on Skovbakken, especially the last two ascents.

Contenders

Trek-Segafredo: Mads Pedersen – I guess Mads is starting as the favorite for this race. He has not raced since stage 12 of the Giro d’Italia, that was 5 weeks ago. It is often difficult to be as good for the Tour as for the Giro, when you do both. I think leaving the Giro means that he will be able to do well in the Tour too. As for tomorrow, he was the second strongest rider last year (or the strongest of the favorites). It is simply a route that screams his name. This year, they are joined by Skjelmose! He is the rider here which is in best shape. The bad news is for him, the climbs are very short. So short than it is difficult to make a big difference if you are poorly positioned. I do think he and Mads will go very well, Skjelmose too is quick from a reduced group.

Søren Kragh Andersen – I will keep mentioning him until the results start to come. A rider who was 5th in Milano-Sanremo and won Eschborn-Frankfurt is good enough to win in Denmark. Tour of Suisse is very odd if we talk about his current form. The two days that suited him were cancelled and I doubt he is working on his TT too often anymore. It still looks like he will be racing the Tour, I think a top result tomorrow may just get him that ticket.

Casper Pedersen – No Giro, no Tour – hopefully, they bring him to the Vuelta. He has had a good year at the Wolfpack, proving he can both be an asset in sprints and in hilly terrain. That is what makes him such a good rider for tomorrow, because he has all you would look for.

Asgreen – does not seem like he is invited to the Tour de France either. National Champ against the clock the other day, I think that win means a lot after a tough period with crashes. He was 7th in De Ronde this season – he still has that level, we just see it too rarely nowadays.

Honoré – one of the other solo riders. I’ve not impressed by him this year but he has not been very lucky either. A crash in Tour Down Under which he had trained very hard for to compete for GC, then a tough crash at LBL with Pogacar too. At one point, everything will click again and he will fight for wins. I think that may be tomorrow already.

Amdi Pedersen – a rider that I have not encountered before but I have heard his name. He is quite quick on a bike. I think he has a fantastic underdog status here, he seems to be quite a versatile sprinter.

Leopard Togt – They should have two riders, as far as I’m concerned that can go well tomorrow. First up is Stokbro, who unfortunately has had a rough run in to this race. He has not completed a race since April. I think the race suits him more that it suits Bregnhøj who seems to be more of a puncheur/climber to me.

Rasmus Bøgh Wallin – another quick Dane who do not mind a hill or two. He was 10th here last season, this year, he is going much better.

Stars

⭐⭐⭐⭐ Mads Pedersen
⭐⭐⭐ Honoré, Casper Pedersen
⭐⭐ Asgreen, Skjelmose, Søren Kragh Andersen
Stokbro, Rasmus Bøgh Wallin, Bregnhøj, Amdi Pedersen

Who will win?

I think the conti-teams will mess up again, they have very few riders that can go up against the best in Denmark. I think it is time Mads Pedersen takes the Danish tricot with him to the Tour de France.

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