Tour de Suisse 2023 – Stage 7
What a terrible thing to happen. As a cycling fan who was deeply hurt by the death of Chris Anker Sørensen in the autumn of 2021, I can only imagine what some are going through now. It feels so odd that we connect these bonds with riders most of us have never met.
Route
With just 2300 climbing meters it can end in a few ways.
The first 45 km are flat, then the Rutlenstrasse. The breakaway will form there within the first 55 km. I’m fairly certain.
The next climb that will play a role is the Ottenberg. The first 2 km are 7.9%. If the teams with sprinters have controlling the stage, this will be a mighty task for them to survive. The top is 19.3 km from the line.
This is the run in for the line.
Roundabouts 1300m and 1000m from the line.
Two left turns 450m and 350m from the line.
You will need a good sprint train.
Weather
A warm day. Tailwind on Rutlenstrasse and Ottenberg. Expect aggresive racing.
How will the stage unfold?
It is the last chance for many to take a stage win. Sprinters such as Merlier, Demare, Groves, Meeus, Wout van Aert and Coquard all still want a stage win. I think the teams FDJ, Alpecin-Fenix, Jumbo-Visma, Cofidis and Intermarché for Girmay all want a piece of this. If the can drop Merlier they will like their chances. I think especially Cofidis and Jumbo-Visma are the two teams to watch out for.
And everyone else would like to bet against them. I doubt Merlier will be super excited for tomorrow. It will be all about letting a small breakaway form early and not on Rutlenstrasse, that will contain many gifted riders. They also need to pace the Ottenberg wisely and not drop all their domestiques.
It is a game of cat and mouse.
Contenders
Wout van Aert – I think he has a good chance of winning tomorrow. I have said it a few times, he will only get better throughout the race. He has the freedom to get into the morning breakaway or stay in the peloton – the last option is what he will go for. With a reduced peloton his chances without a lead-out man increases.
Coquard – the climb makes his chances better too. I expect Cofidis to set it up for their sprinter.
Girmay – already has a stage win with a good lead-out from Teunissen. It is a good stage for Girmay too, Intermarché must be one of the main teams to control the stage and put on a high pace on the climbs. Can he take two wins here?
Demare – is it too difficult for him? I am not sure.
Groves – is it too difficult for him? I am not sure. He climbed well in the Giro d’Italia, I think he can handle this.
SKA – breakaway option #1. It is all or nothing on this stage.
Arndt – breakaway option #2. It would be a beautiful win for Gino.
Powless – breakaway option #3. I’m just pondering, but was he called back for Uran the other day or did he just poorly manage his energy? The legs are there.
Schmid – breakway option #4. I think it is out of Merlier’s league.
Simmons – breakaway optiont #5. He had some good legs the other day.
Stars
⭐⭐⭐⭐ Arndt
⭐⭐⭐ Wout van Aert, Girmay
⭐⭐ Groves, Coquard, SKA
⭐ Schmid, Demare, Powless, Simmons
Who will win?
I will take a romantic pick for tomorrow. A win for Nikias Arndt. He can both do it from the breakaway and from a reduced bunch sprint.
