I like the look of this stage. It has the element to surprise coming before a rest day.
We have approximately 4000 climbing meters tomorrow.
We will break this down further.
Detailed analysis of the route
It is a rouleur start. No big climbs inside the first 36 km. Towards the end of the section, we do have a hill if 2.6 km at 7%. If the break does not form here, it will form on the first categorized climb.
Valico di Valcava is a tough climb. The last 1.8 km are 11.7%.
Following is a long descent. The second part is difficult, it is extremely quick with loads of hairpins.
Them, a valley taking us 109.5 km from the line. Here, we have pair of climbs. This what I would call the fuga de la fuga area.
Selvino: 11.3 km at 5.3%
Miragolo San Salvatore: 4.75 km at 7.7%.
A descent and a flat take us to the last categorized climb of the stage.
Which is the Almenno San Bartolomeo. This is a tough climb too, especially the first 6 km at 8.4%.
From the top, there is a challenging descent. Before a long flat section until Bergamo. Here, there is a little hill, 1 km at 8%. Adds a little spice until the descent to the line.
Another day with little wind. A change of rain in the finale but it should be a warm day on the bike.
How will the stage unfold?
Now we have a new team in the Maglia Rosa. My best guess? They will send Pinot in the breakaway. So far, only INEOS have had a problem with it. INEOS need to let go of the control and admit that the other teams need to step up too.
What does that mean? Well, FDJ can’t control it at all. I think INEOS knew that, therefore letting go of the jersey. The finale is too difficult for the sprinters and too easy for the GC men. This should be another breakaway day. I doubt FDJ will let a breakaway go where they can lose the jersey – unless it is losing it to Pinot.
Van Wilder – it is a very good stage for him tomorrow. The flat start ensures he can get away with his motor, while the climbs are not too difficult for him to manage. It is the best call for Quick-Step tomorrow, despite him sitting 15th in the GC.
Healy – not too active today. He should start tomorrow as one of the main favorites. Bettiol used a lot of energy today, Cort is feeling ill. He is the last man standing for tomorrow.
McNulty – he is going so well. UAE are wasting so much riding solely for Almeida, in my book.
Barguil – he should start getting better and better. Did he use too many matches today? I doubt it.
Jungels – Come on Bob. He looked to be going well in the opening half of the race but he has been on Kämna duty while Konrad seems to be getting all the fun. It is a good stage for Jungels.
Verona – very odd of him going into todays break as a climber. Hopefully, he has something left for tomorrow. It should suit him.
Bettiol – how much energy did he use today? He is riding in to some serious form just now.
Roglic – if it becomes GC battle, he should have the best sprint despite not being 100%
Thomas – he won’t lose time to his rivals tomorrow
Almeida – he has a good, flat sprint.
⭐⭐⭐⭐ Van Wilder
⭐⭐⭐ Healy, McNulty
⭐⭐ Thomas, Roglic, Bettiol
⭐ Almeida, Verona, Barguil, Jungels
Who will win?
I’m fancying a stage win for Van Wilder tomorrow.