Giro d’Italia 2023 – Stage 11
Tomorrow that riders will be halfway through what I would recall the worst-weather-edition of Giro d’Italia I can recall.
Route
It is another long stage. I often feel there are very long days in Italy. This stage has roughly 2000 climbing meters.
From going south today to heading north tomorrow.
Are the climbs too hard for the sprinters?
We have three categorized climbs. Depending on which website you use, they can look difficult.
The first one is Passo del Bracco. It is far from the finish
Next up is the Colla de Boasi. A longer effort with lower gradients. We are still far from the line.
The last one is Passo della Castognola. I would say this is the part of the climb that is worth mentioning. We are 43 km from the finish line at the top.
Finale
From the top of Passo della Castognola, it is mostly downhill to the line, dropping 1% for 43 km.
Inside the last 5 km, it is quite simply until 2 km out. Here, they take a left in a roundabout, it is more of a bend with another roundabout at 1.75 km out going “through” it.
The most important factor is the sharp right turn with 500 meters left. Single lane, stretching it out. You want to be in the first 10 positions here to get a result.
Weather
A headwind / cross headwindthroughout the day of 4-5 m/s and rain throughout the day. It seems the weather that was supposed to dominate the one-day classics in March and April has found it’s way to Italy. It means a headwind on the climbs too. That means timing the move into the last corner must be at the last minute with a long block of headwind beforehand.
How will the stage unfold?
Breakaway got it today, tomorrow, the sprinters will not be denied for another stage. The easy start makes it manageable for the teams to control the size of the breakaway. With the headwind and a mountain stage coming up, it should really be settled for a sprint.
Contenders
Pedersen – He did not climb that well today according to PCS but he was back again after the descent, so I’m not sure what the fuss is about. He was the strongest in the sprint behind, not that it tells us much. Another day tomorrow, long and rainy. He still has a full team to help him, it will be a massive advantage tomorrow.
Groves – he lost a lot of time today. Alpecin are not the best at giving updates on there riders but I do not seem to find anything regarding him. So there are some reasons why. One is crashing, which has not been reported and likely would. Two, just having a tough day back on the bike after a rest day. I will go for reason number two. The team is down to five riders and he usually struggles surfing wheels on his own, I doubt tomorrow will a win for Groves.
Milan – a small crash today, I loved his attitude regarding it. It was harder with the climbs than the crash itself, he is more than fine to sprint for another top result. Pasqualon is looking good too, he has one of the best lead-out men tomorrow, he will challenge for the win.
Gaviria – crashed today after Movistar paced. A real shame to be fair. The South Americans know how to ride in the wind and the rain. How much trouble did the crash course? It is a unknown but he looks to be getting better and better day by day.
Ackermann – happy to see him back chasing top results. He and Gibbons seem to be getting better and better at figuring out the sprints. He should be in contention for another podium tomorrow.
Cavendish – all of Astana behind him, you love to see it. He will not be in a good enough position to fight for the win. A top-10.
Ballerini – with no GC rider left, expect him to fight for a result. A top-10 is the most likely outcome.
Dainese – the dark horse. He is quick enough to win and the team has a strong set of roulers to make sure, he gets to that final corner in a good position. But losing 23:02 today is quite a lot for a rider, I would say is a decent climber for a sprinter. The only sprint he did so far, he was DSQ’ed and demoted to the back of the peloton as a result. It seems DSM have messed up another talent once more.
Matthews – A top-10 is likely.
Stewart – A top 10 is likely. The poor weather is in his favor.
Stars
⭐⭐⭐⭐ Pedersen
⭐⭐⭐ Ackermann, Milan
⭐⭐ Dainese, Gaviria, Groves
⭐ Ballerini, Stewart, Matthews, Cavendish
Who will win?
I will take a win for Pedersen. He has seven riders at his disposal, meaning the last corner will be a big advantage for him. Milan is in my opinion the man to threaten him with the last spot for the podium being relatively open after many crashes today. Let’s hope everyone is okay.
