Giro d’Italia 2023 – Stage 3
Milan won the first sprint duel but tomorrow should be more selective.
Route
Flat for the first 175 km, then two categorized climbs.
Climbs
First one is the toughest. Starts right after a tight corner, meaning the bunch will slow down and the ones near the front can stretch the group out. The same tactics as used in spring classics.
Same goes for climb number two. A very sharp corner.
This is the profile.
1st climb: Valico dei Laghi di Monticchio (6.3 km à 6.4%)
2nd climb: Valico La Croce (3.1 km à 6.1%).
They are not just speedbumps.
Finale
This is the run for home. Mostly downhill but constantly up and down with directions changing. It will be very hard to get back in contention if dropped. There is an intermediate sprint 10 km from the line too.
The last 5 km. Super difficult last km with three corners.
First one is just near the 1 km banner. The road is narrow here which makes it a bit dangerous.
With 800m left, another turn in a roundabout.
Last one, where you absolutely need to be near the front is 400m from the line. Almost a 180 degree turn, once again with a narrow lane. The last 350m rise with 3.7% to the line.
Weather
Not a lot of wind here in Italy. The wind will blow from the south meaning the riders will have crosswind or tailwind on the two climbs and home. It will rain throughout the day too.
How will the stage unfold?
Finally, a stage you can try and break down. First, we have to look at the climbs. Who has any interest in putting on a fierce pace.
Jayco has. The must set a tough pace to try and drop the likes of Ackermann, Gaviria and Groves. I could imagine INEOS, Jumbo and QuickStep all want to be near the front too with a wet descend in the finale. That means the pace will be high.
This means the heavier sprinters will get dropped. Personally, I think this could be very selective with the climbs they have to ride. Remember, 1st climb: Valico dei Laghi di Monticchio (6.3 km à 6.4%) and
2nd climb: Valico La Croce (3.1 km à 6.1%). That is difficult.
Conclusion – it is a lot harder than it looks.
Contenders
If they are not mentioned it is because I think they will get dropped. So therefore no Gaviria, Ackermann, Marit or Dekker.
Matthews – the team has to perform on a stage such as this. They have the firepower to set a fierce tempo on the climb with Zana, Dunbar and De Marchi but they will lack firepower afterwards. The issue is Zana and Dunbar may fancy stage 4 as a breakaway chance for them both, therefore I think they will need help in order to drop some of the sprinters.
Pedersen – it looked like the whole team was about to go down but only Dan Hoole went down. The Maglia Rosa dream is over now, meaning it is time to get pack in contention for the points jersey. With Ciccone out, expect everyone to set a tough pace on the climb, with the likes of Mollema, Tesfatsion and Ghebreigzabhier, they have some firepower too.
Groves – he is a better climber than you think, just take a look at Volta Limburg Classic as the most recent example. He will hope to have Oldani and Sbaragli with him over the top, but that is the dream scenario. Personally, I think this is a big test for him. He is a good climber but tomorrow will be a big, big test for him.
Albanese – the type of stage he should shine at being a fast rider who can climb. I expect him to finish in the top-10.
Milan – some win and some sprint. When the tall Italian is in form, he usually goes uphill quite fast. The team is filled with climbers who likely will look to be near the front anyway, so he will just jump on that train. Usually, he goes well on shorter and steeper climbs. Tomorrow is a big test for someone 80+ kg.
Cort – he would have loved to have been a few percent better, but he was happy with his legs after the time trial. These are the type of stages made for him. They have a strong squad of climbers, meaning he will not be entirely alone after the climbs.
Roglic – I think it will be that hard. Look out for Roglic wanting to take bonus seconds.
Vlasov – His TT was good and he is quick on the line. Expect him to be up there.
Tao G. Hart – INEOS are always in the mood to set a set high pace on a climb. Tao will likely be in a good position too for the sprint, making him a top-10 contender.
Evenepoel – some legs he has. His sprint has gotten better – but he still beats few of the above-mentioned. There is always the chance of him attacking tomorrow, he does not follow common tactics.
Stars
⭐⭐⭐⭐ Pedersen
⭐⭐⭐ Matthews, Groves
⭐⭐ Roglic, Cort, Milan
⭐ Vlasov, Albanese, Tao G. Hart, Evenepoel
Who will win?
I will take a win for Mads Pedersen. Groves did not impress me with his speed today.
