Amstel Gold Race 2023

The first Ardennes Classic on the list.

Route

We have the same finale as last year, let’s break it down.

Starting with 44 km out, the riders tackle six difficult short climbs where the winning group or the contenders for winning the race is found.

The six climbs goes as this;

Gulperbergweg – 900m at 5.3%
Kruisberg – 400m at 11.6%
Eyser bosweg – 950m at 8.5%. Very steep near the top.
Keutenberg – 500m at 10.5%
Cauberg – 800m at 7.5%
Geulhemmerberg – 700m at 6.5%

All the climbs are shorter than a km, on narrow roads and irregular climbs, plus they are done after 200 km of racing already. The group goes between 44 km left – 27 km left.

Weather

Wind blowing from the north. That means mostly crosswind and headwind on the climbs except Keutenberg where the riders will have a nice tailwind. It will rain a bit throughout the race too.

How will the race unfold?

As mentioned, the finale begins at Gulperberg. With a headwind on Kruisberg and Eyser Bosweg, my guess is the main move goes at Keutenberg as they also have a tailwind over the top. We will have to see, who can follow Pogacar here. He was not very confident in his sprint against MvdP and Wout van Aert so I think his approach will be to get to the line solo.

So that scenario is Pogacar vs the rest with 27 km to go. Surely, that suits the group behind? Likely not. People will start looking at the podium spots, skip turns and attack each other. That is still the tactics. It will be a game of cat and mouse. Usually, we do not have solo winners here which leaves a bit of hope for tomorrows race.

Contenders

Pogacar – the overwhelming favorite. He is here in a league of his own with Wout van Aert and Mathieu van der Poel not competing. He already has 10 wins to his name this season, and I think he would like to add Amstel Gold Race to the list. It has been two weeks since Tour of Flanders, he should arrive fresh.

Pidcock – it has been positive signs from him since the concussion. His recent result in Tour of Flanders do not show how well he raced until he had burned all his matches. With a bit more training in the last weeks, he will hope to fight for the podium.

Cosnefroy – the form is getting there. It is the Ardennes Classic that suits him best which is also why he almost took the win last year. The competition is tougher this year, I think he will fight for a top-10.

Benoot – he was on the podium last year. I doubt he can follow the best puncheurs but he is not a rider that will simply sit around doing nothing until a sprint for the remaining placements are taking place. He does not pack a sprint, meaning he would have to win solo or attack from G2 in the finale.

Higuita – a better one day racer than you think. He finally seems to be going in the right direction after the recent races in Spain. I think the race suits him but the last 27 km do not have a lot of climbing which is not optimal for him. However, he does pack a fast sprint from a group. I think he can challenge for the podium, he did very well in Basque Country.

Powless – some season he is having. Recent result is 5th in Tour of Flanders and he also has a 7th in MSR. He loves a long day in the saddle. The team also has Ben Healy who is the man of the hour just now. Some form he is carrying around. The question is for Healy if the distance will be the biggest problem, he has only completed one stage longer than 230 km in his pro career.

Schmid – I think he is the better option than Bagioli. 11th overall in Basque Country, unbelievable result. He is a real fighter – just like Benoot. He will not settle for 7th if there is the smallest chance of getting a better result by taking a bit of a risk. He will fight for the top-10.

FDJ – they have two options in Gaudu and Madoaus. It is a race than suits them both. Gaudu did well in Basque Country despite allergies and Madouas bounced back from a DNF in Tour of Flanders with a 4th in Paris – Camenbert. As we do not have much climbing in the finale, I think it suits Madouas more but I still expect both to finish in the top-10.

Mohoric – sad to see him crash out in Tour of Flanders with the shape he was in but that is cycling. Now, a week after Paris – Roubaix I expect him to be near his best again. His biggest results often come after 250 km of racing, I expect him to be up there with the best tomorrow despite his tough crash two weeks ago.

Stars

⭐⭐⭐⭐ Pogacar
⭐⭐⭐ Powless, Madoaus
⭐⭐ Mohoric, Higuita, Pidcock
⭐ Healy, Gaudu, Benoot, Cosnefroy

Who will win?

Pogacar is in his own league here.