Paris-Roubaix 2023

L’enfer du Nord. I love this race, it is so unpredictable.


It seems a bit odd, but I do think a planimetry map best shows Paris-Roubaix. I think we will see more or less the same approach as last year. Arenberg will decide the losers of this race. From there, anything can happen.

Pavée sections

The Arenberg starts 95.5 km from home.


It looks like the riders will have a tailwind tomorrow, that certainly opens up the race. There is a small chance of raindrops, that could make things interesting. Temperatures around 15 C. The sectors are still muddy, will they dry up?

How will the race unfold?

So there are some things to consider for tomorrow. One, it is one of those races where getting in the early breakaway can get you a long, long way. In 2022, Tom Devriendt, Andrien Petit and Laurent Pichon all got a top-10. Florian Veermersch in 2021 got on the podium. So, the question is. Who decides who is too dangerous to get up the road? Likely no one.

Then the chasing. In a podcast with Boonen, he explained how Paris – Roubaix differs from most races. It is inefficient, race to a secteur, helpers get dropped and the favorites have to wait for them to get back. Therefore, being out in front is more efficient. You do not have tactical points as we do in Ronde van Vlaanderen.

So, if having riders out in front and adding the headwind, having a strong team with width is key. Who has that? Of course Jumbo-Visma (Wout van Aert, Van Baarle, Hooydonck and Laporte). It suits them all, I would say it suits them all more than Ronde van Vlaanderen due to it being flat. I would say the same for Quick Step (Asgreen, Lampaert and Sénéchal) – the flat race is better than the hilly race. We have to talk about Alpecin too with Mathieu van der Poel, G. Veermersch and Phillipsen, but no SKA? Very odd.

Nonetheless and despite their recent bad luck, JV is the team to beat once more. They will do what they have done all spring, make sure to have riders up the road and isolating the competition. The only way to counter it is sending you stronger riders up the road too. Mohoric said in an interview the muddy sectors benefit riders out in front.


JV – take your pick, they have four potential winners. Wout van Aert had a lot of bad luck last year. I think this race is made for him, when you look at his power on the flat and his sprint. He is getting a lot of critic from gifting GW and only finished 4th in Ronde van Vlaanderen despite crashing there, something that seems to have had a small affect on him. I really like Laporte for this race, he seems to be going very well despite only getting 14th in Ronde van Vlaanderen. Van Baarle back from a crash and Hooydonck the man to sit on moves.

Mathieu van der Poel – he starts with a strong team but not the strongest possible. Last year he attacked too much too soon, leaving him with a 9th place. We do not need to ramble on too much, his form is fantastic. I feel he is the only option from the team that can win.

Pedersen – going mighty fine about now. It is a race that suits him better than Ronde van Vlaanderen. He has proved he is not shy of attacking early and as we have established it is wise tomorrow. After a race like this, he beats everyone in a sprint if you bring him to the line.

Küng – the monument that suits him the most. He will need to win solo though. 6th in E3 and Ronde van Vlaanderen, form is where it needs to be. I expect him to finish in the top-5.

Ganna – won the junior edition 8 years back. He has build his spring up to this moment. The crash in GW was certainly not optimal and neither the 91 in Dwars door Vlaanderen. We will have to see how he has recovered, he is a dark horse by now.

Asgreen – the form is improving nicely. 7th in Ronde was the positive sign we needed to see from the Wolfpack if they are to salvage a result in the spring cobbled classics. His best result here is 44th – something he will improve tomorrow.

Trentin – I think he is going great at the moment. Despite no good result here in prior editions, he rode well in Ronde van Vlaanderen. I think he is one of the riders from the group of favorites who will find the right group to get up the road which will carry him a long way.

Fred Wright – A top-10. Form is going in the right direction.

Sep Vanmarcke – A top-10. He always goes brilliantly here.

Rutsch, Louvel, Bjerg, Teunissen – the type of riders that could get far by going in the morning breakaway.


⭐⭐⭐⭐ Pedersen
⭐⭐⭐ Mathieu van der Poel, Laporte
⭐⭐ Asgreen, Küng, Wout van Aert
⭐ Vanmarcke, Wright, Trentin, Ganna

Who will win?

I prediction made with my heart and the few races I have seen. A win for Mads Pedersen.

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