Paris – Nice 2023 – Stage 3 (TTT)

We are in the dark when it comes to tactics tomorrow. Nonetheless, I still think we will see a few teams sticking to the usual tactic. I will tell you why.

* Asgreen and Laporte are not a part of it. I think it evens out in the end, but it should be an advantage for the teams challenging for the podium.

Route

I will count this as a flat TT. They are going counterclockwise as you can see. They will go in three directions more or less.

When it comes to putting the picture above into context, they are racing in the Forest of Orleans. That means most of the route does have plenty of trees on the roadside.

Weather

First team down the ramp at 14:57, last team down the ramp 16:00. Weather is the same for all riders teams more or less. Wind direction could change slightly from the early riders having wind from SW, while the late starts have it W.

It does mean the large sector (16 – 3 km left) should be with a cross headwind. That is the reason why you need to keep the numbers, otherwise I simply think you will run out of gas.

Contenders

Jumbo – Visma – with the core of Vingegaard, Laporte, Foss, Dennis, Affini and Tratnik. They will start the TTT as the big favorites. With all the talk about launching Pogacar, they could do the same with Vingegaard.

UAE – with the core of Pogacar, Wellens, Bjerg and Oliviera. It is not a bad core. A lot of talk have been around how early Pogacar goes solo. My best guess could be with 3.5 km out, when they turn into a cross tailwind to the line. I expect them to finish in the top-5, Pogacar counts for two.

Jayco – AlUla – they used to dominate this. With Matthews, Durbridge, Sobrero and Yates their core isn’t bad. I think they, like UAE, should be able to finish in the top-5. It is all about making sure Yates get’s a strong time.

Cofidis – with the core of Ion Izagirre, B. Thomas and Walscheid. That is not a bad core but they miss that one big engine that really can make them a podium contender. I think they will do a good time, but a top-10 is the most likely result.

EF – with a core of Powless, Cort, Scully and Bissegger. Capable of challenging for a top-5, one could argue the podium. They have some of the best gear around and they surprised in UAE Tour where they did far better than I expected. They must be the dark horse tomorrow, Powless and Cort are flying.

Trek – Segafredo – with the core of Skjelmose, Hoole, Kirsch and Pedersen. To me, that is good enough to be one of the few teams that can challenge for a podium spot. It is what I will be expecting of them, to fight for the podium.

Quick Step – the only team that can beat Jumbo – Visma. Asgreen, Cavagna, Lampaert, Schmid and Senechal. That is a fantastic team. I expect them to challenge for the win.

Bora – Hansgrohe – with a good set of riders too, Schachmann, Jungels, Mullen and Politt are all strong guys for a TTT. They could finish just outside the podium.

INEOS – with a core of Martinez and Tarling really. I do not think they will be challenging for the win, they will look to limit the time the will lose.

Who will win?

It is between Jumbo-Visma and Quick Step while I see Trek – Segafredo taking 3rd spot. It has to be a win for Jumbo-Visma. It is along TTT, the numbers count and JV has six strong riders against Quick Steps five.

*Laporte and Asgreen not starting, meaning it is five strong (Vingegaard, Tratnik, Foss, Dennis and Affini) vs four from Quick-Step (Cavagna, Lampaert, Schmid and Senechal).