Kuurne – Bruxelles – Kuurne 2023
The second race in the Belgian opening weekend.
Route
It is difficult to say, when the finale opens up. The first half of the race is fairly simple. Then the gradients on the climbs to get higher and we start to see more cobbles on these hills. A general rule of thumb is it starts near Hameau des Papins with 93 km left of the stage.
This is the section where classics riders try to make the difference.
We got, in this order:
Hameau des Papins: 1.2 km at 6.3%.
Le Bourliquet: 1.3 km at 6.2%.
Mont Saint Laurent: 1.2 km at 7.3% – COBBLED.
Kruisberg: 1.3 km at 5.2% – COBBLED.
Kluisberg: 1.1 at 5.5%,
Côte de Trieu: 1.2 km at 7.1%.
From the top, there are 52 km left of cat and mouse.
Weather
Wind from the NE and it is more windy than yesterday in Omloop Het Nieuwsblad.
For the attackers, it means their section is mostly with a crosswind. That could be worse.
For the sprinter, it means they will have to chase in the crosswind too.
It will be cold, degrees just around 5 C.
Does that mean echelons? It could well do. I think the best looking section is this. This is a long way out, before the section with the climbs. With 130 km to the finish, the riders start heading towards the south. That gives them a nice cross-tailwind.
The first spot is after exiting Maarkedal with 121 km left -> 114 km left.
The riders are now in a more covered area. The next spot is after Floberg with 101 km left -> 93 km left. Just before the finale. It is almost more tailwind than crosswind but it is still a superb spot.
The next is when the cat and mouse game between the climbs and Kortijk. Otherwise, it could well split over the top of either of the climbs:
Hameau des Papins: 1.2 km at 6.3%.
Le Bourliquet: 1.3 km at 6.2%.
Mont Saint Laurent: 1.2 km at 7.3% – COBBLED.
Kruisberg: 1.3 km at 5.2% – COBBLED.
Kluisberg: 1.1 at 5.5%,
Côte de Trieu: 1.2 km at 7.1%.
How will the race unfold?
Wind blowing. That is a factor, an even bigger one than today I dare say. So is that something the strongest teams want? Stars to represent how well their team should do in the wind. The teams are listed because they have one of the favorites.
Soudal QuickStep (***)
Riders: They simply do not have a rider on the start list who shouldn’t do well.
Jumbo-Visma (***)
Riders: They simply do not have a rider on the start list who shouldn’t do well.
Bahrain – Victorious (**)
Riders: They have a very strong squad but some of them are not world-class riders yet.
Alpecin-Deceuninck (*)
Riders: Phillipsen, Laurance and Dillier. They have a strong core but not the best width.
Groupama – FDJ (*)
Riders: Küng, Geniets, and Stewart. Three very strong riders and five who could either surprise or disappoint.
UAE Team Emirates (**)
Riders: They have a very strong squad but some of them are not world-class riders yet.
Lotto-Dstny (**)
Riders: De Lie, Van Moer and Veermersch. The rest should go well but I’m not to certain.
Uno-X (**)
Riders: Tiller, Kristoff, Wærenskjold and Bendixen. A good core with riders not being at the top level.
Bora-Hansgrohe (*)
Riders: Haller, Meeus and Politt. A strong core but I’m having doubts about the rest.
In conclussion, Quick-Step & Jumbo-Visma are the two strongest teams – ACCORDING TO ME. This is not a calculation, it is an opinion. Some teams are low rated despite having a strong core.
Contenders
De Lie – after today’s performance it is difficult to pinpoint what he can not do. Lotto-Soudal, in my opinion, should not give freedom to the other riders. De Lie is their best chance at getting a good result. If it comes down to a sprint, few beat him. I doubt he will have many riders left, if it is a sprint.
Phillipsen – he does not have a very good team around him. He should be fine in the crosswinds, he can work around that. I think he needs to follow De Lie and hope Lotto + Alpecin can make a coalition to solely ride for a sprint. He too is hard to beat after a tough day in Belgium. I doubt he will have many riders left, if it is a sprint.
Kristoff – pleased with his result today. He is not the only Uno-X rider who can pick up a good placement tomorrow, as mentioned, Tiller was the best of the rest today on Bosberg. Rumors are Bendixen is going well after Saudi Tour and Wærenskjold is a strong rider for crosswinds. Another podium would be a fantastic result for the team. If I was in their DS shoes, I would have Bendixen and Tiller follow moves. Both are quick enough to challenge in a reduced sprint.
Jakobsen – won here in 2022. There is tougher competition this time around in case we see a sprint. He does have a good lead-out and they could have a lot of riders in the finale. The Quick-Step magic just seems off – but that is a harsh judgement after one race. With Ballerini and Pedersen, I think they go for him.
A Quick-Step rider – pick a name. Follow moves and sit on boys. You have Jakobsen behind it makes it easier to skip a turn.
Jumbo-Visma – well, their goal is to make the life of everyone else a living hell in Belgium. They will succeed. The problem is the long way home after the climbs. With Laporte, Benoot, Van Baarle, Tratnik and Van Hooydonck it is not so simple to take a pick. Bennot is well-known for attacking on Côte de Trieu.
Küng – looked good today but also had to use a lot of energy closing moves. He would have to will solo and I doubt that is the outcome. I think Geniets is a good second option, with Penhöet being their sprinter.
Mohoric / Fred Wright – Mohoric had a good race today. One of the best out on the road. I think he is the best option, as they can have Milan try to sit on behind. Wright was a bit disappointing today as he used up a lot of matches early. Both pack a good sprint and fewer cobbles enhance both their chances.
Wellens – he will attack. If a group goes to the line, he will be in it.
Sheffield – INEOS down to 5 riders. As I said, I still think they are a bit overvalued by some. The loss of Van Baarle is huge. I hope he finds a good move and try to make the most of it.
Who will win?
Wind will make it more selective. It means teams will be down to fewer riders, and the crosswind will make the race more demanding. Therefore, I will be going for a rider from a strong team – a team that have multiple strong options.
I will take a win for Laporte.
