Vuelta a Andalucia Ruta Ciclista Del Sol 2023 – Stage 5
The last stage in Andalucia. The stage has 3000 climbing meters, but the last hard bit of climbing comes with 35 km left of the stage.
The route
Starting off slightly downhill before it goes up or down for 40 km. The breakaway is likely established here but there is a good chance it can also happen on the hardest climb of the day, which starts after 80 km of racing. Sometimes, it just takes a lot of time to get in the breakaway, and I imagine a lot of riders will try tomorrow.
Puerto del Sol is a long climb but not very steep due to the plateau after the first half. The second climbing part is 7.15 km at 6.5%.
From there, it is mostly downhill towards the steep muros with 35 km left of the stage. The first is the one below, 2.1 km at 10.9%. That is difficult, and that is with the plateau near the top, likely making the first 1.5 km roughly 12-13%.
It is follow by another muro, a short on. From the top, the riders will have 31.5 km left and most of it is flat.
After a long flat section, the last km looks like this. It is a finish some of them will know, as it was used in 2019 with Trentin winning.
Weather
Wind from SE, meaning most of the stage will be with crosswinds. They have a nice tailwind on Puerto del Sol, but in the last 50 km the riders mainly have cross headwind. Not too good news for the breakaway. 15 degrees and no rain.
How will the stage unfold?
Who wants a sprint? No one really I think, as there is no real clear sprint favorites, but more or less fast classics riders.
UAE and INEOS are still not on the podium. That means we should see some GC action, either on Puerto del Sol or one of the two ramps. They are difficult enough to make a few gaps happen. The question is then, how far up the road the breakaway will be at that point.
We could see a reduced group being made on Puerto del Sol and then have a late break from riders inside the top-10. The headwind just makes it more likely a larger group gets to the line together. Also the fact we have 30 km of flat before the finale. Not really GC terrain.
Contenders
Pogacar – if it comes down to a GC sprint, which I find unlikely, we should Pogacar winning with ease.
Brent van Moer – form is good but he has not hit the breakaway in this race yet. I can see him taking a solo win, having a big engine like his is perfect if the run is has a headwind – the smaller riders will suffer more.
Kron – seems to be racing for a top-10 overall, which is a good result. I would have hoped it could have been more, but he is currently in a spot, where he could attack from a bigger GC group and shouldn’t be marked that tight. He has a good sprint on him too.
Rota – much like with Kron, really going well just now.
Rex – lets see what he can do. He is a very large rider, he is more of a sprinter but he is quite good uphill. He will be one of the favorites if he is in a group sprint.
Battisstella – it could well be a very good stage for him. He already has a 3rd place result on stage 3, and I think it is likely he could get another good result tomorrow.
Laurance – depends on the big climb. He was 10th on Mont Boquet (Etoile de Besseges), which means he is not terrible uphill by any means. And he is very fast too.
Wellens – he could go out there to sit on in the breakaway. Perhaps they send Covi up there.
Swift – looked quite good so far. I think the uphill drag to the line suits him, and he has the capabilities to get in the breakaway, we saw that on stage 3.
Mohoric – depends on team orders. It is a perfect stage for him. Will he be allowed with a bit of freedom now Bahrain has two on the podium? I think so.
Who will win?
I will take a win for Mohoric. He should be allowed to get in the break by the team. If not it isn’t a breakaway day, he still stands a change of a larger group gets to the finish together.
