Another win by UAE Team Emirates as we saw the breakaway take the stage win. Tomorrow is another stage difficult to predict, but it is one of the harder stages in this race.
A hilly start should make for a strong breakaway. We then have a long flat section before it is pretty much up or down in the last half of the race. The last 60 km is where the battle for the stage and the GC can begin.
To narrow it further down, it is the last 30 km. The first climb is the Alto de El Jaramillo.
After a fast descent, the riders then take on El Higueral (2.6 km at 6.6%) and Fuentes de Cesna (4.3 km at 4.7%). From the top of the last mentioned climb, there are 11.1 km left.
Another fast descent brings the to the last bit of climbing of the day with 2.7 km to the line. First are the two appetizers before the Iznajar ramp.
It is a different approach in to the city than has been used before. Therefore, it is not the same muro finish as they have used the last couple of editions. Tomorrows climb is on tarmac. Battle for positioning will likely not be as vital as today – I expect a reduced peloton the reach the bottom.
The wind will blow from the SE. That means mainly crosswinds throughout the day (5-7 m/s) but the wind speed will become way lower the closer they get to the line. No rain and temperatures around 18 degrees C.
How will the stage unfold?
We saw a big group getting clear today. I don’t see tomorrow being any different. There is a hilly, windy start meaning decent climbers do have a chance getting up there. Once we get closer the the finale, being a climber is also an advantage.
I think we will have a breakaway going clear, if it is safe for UAE. Once we get closer the the finale, inside the last 30 km, we could see a few GC teams trying to shake things up. We will have to see if the gap is large enough because if it is not, Pogacar will use it as a chance to take another win. Both INEOS and Movistar has riders they would like to see trying to get on the podium.
Pogacar – if it is a GC day he wins.
Teuns – he looked very good on stage 2, but I think he used to much energy trying to hold off Pogacar and he did not get a lot of help from the other riders in the breakaway. On paper, he should be one of the best in the world on these climbs.
Kron – he is in good form and the two climbs at the start makes the chance of him getting in the breakaway much higher. I do think the amount of climbing before the final ramp is another thing going for him, but I am uncertain about just how good he is on double digits.
Brent van Moer – missed the break today too. He is more of a going-solo a long way out from the breakaway than winning the uphill sprint in a small group.
Rota – a rider that goes well on double digits. I still recall him putting everyone under pressure at Trofeo Laigueglia last season. 6th on stage 2 indicates form is very good just now.
Axel Laurance – I think Alto de El Jaramillo will be his death sentence from the breakaway. He is a very talented rider and a fighter, but he is not the best climber out there.
Mohoric – depends on team orders. He could win it from the breakaway.
Narvaez – depends on team orders, but he would have been a better rider to have in the breakaway today than Puccio and Swift.
Guerreiro – depends on team orders. He has not been able to carry the form from Oman to Spain just yet. If he finds the legs, chances will be high tomorrow if he makes the breakaway.
Sobrero – he is in good form and has the attributes to fight for the win in the breakaway.
Who will win?
I think it will be another day for the breakaway and I think Andreas Kron will take a win.