It is one of two chances for the sprinters, meaning their teams will be ready to control the stage. Is there any team, who want to spice it up they will be happy to see we have some climbs near the end.
Flat start, but hills in the last 65 km or so could make life difficult for some. 5km at 4.3% and 2.9km at 5.3% however isn’t enough for be to ring the alarm. It should come down to a sprint, it simply isn’t difficult enough.
We had the same finale in 2022 and a few times before. Some riders will know it very well, especially Jakobsen winning the past three times they have finished in Lagos.
It is quite simply, the group will gradually get drawn out to a line – it was last year due to Evenepoel being 4th in the sprint train. It is a proper boulevard sprint. You can move up in the finale 750 meters, the road is quite wide.
16 degrees and rain throughout the day. Wind will be blowing from the SE (7 m/s or 25 km/h) which could cause some splits. However, the terrain in Algarve makes it quite unlikely. It does have an impact in the sprint, since they will be sprinting near the harbor. It makes it a quite difficult headwind sprint to time correctly.
Jakobsen – everyone except Van Wilder will be in the train to help. That is a lot of quality in there. Mørkøv, Pedersen, Asgreen, Cavagna and Declerq. World class lead-out. He has won the last three times they have finish in Lagos too.
Meeus – He is mighty quick but often struggles to sprint from a good position. Haller and Politt should be able to put him into a decent position, but I doubt it will be good enough to win.
Kristoff – him or Wærenskjold? I assume Kristoff. They have Tiller in there too, which leaves a very strong trio. A long headwind sprint for the man well-known for opening sprints too soon? He should be challenging for the podium.
Teunissen – top 5 contender.
Theuns – top 5 contender.
Penhoët – I do not think he is far off his first WT podium. With Küng, Stewart and Scotson, FDJ may be the second best train tomorrow. I think he will be challenging for another good result, he has kicked the season off well.
Who will win?
Jakobsen. Easy as that.