Vuelta a Espana 2022 – Stage 12

A flat day in the south of Spain, finishing off with a mountain top finish.

They are mainly going east, crossing Costa del Sol in Malaga, and finishing west of Marbella.

The finale climb

It will be a long effort, but the last half is not that steep. We could see some gaps in the GC, but I think it will be a relatively calm day.


A day with a headwind and very hot.

How will the stage unfold?

If there was one thing I learned when watching the Giro d’Italia, it is the fact that the more riders abandoning, the better the chance of a breakaway. I really do not think the GC teams will play anything, and I mean anything, at all before the last climb. The breakaway should have a big enough gap at the bottom of the last climb to secure the day.


Vine – the man is flying at the moment. He is perhaps if you look at the numbers, one of the best climbers in the world right now. He will be very difficult to beat if you bring him to the foot of the final climb with a margin on the peloton. He has the engine to make the break on a flat start.

Padun – he excels on longer climbs. The longer, the better. He has already proved his shape, and I expect him to be one of the very best tomorrow. The flat start will not be a problem for him either.

Arensman – I can (and will not) talk about DSM tactics – they do speak for themselves. Tomorrow is another good chance to get in the morning break. Who will keep him on a leash? I doubt anyone. He has power on the flat, and he is a very good climber.

Pinot – he will need a slingshot by Armirail, but FDJ is willing to work for him. It makes his chances quite good tomorrow. He is in fine form, but the team will need to support him to make sure he makes the break.

Soler – he is looking sharp. He will be one of the climbers loving the flat start.

Taaramae – he is just an engine from the Baltic. He is climbing well, but he rarely wins.

Hamilton – Yates out and that means Hamilton is unleashed. He has a few domestiques that should make sure he gets in the morning breakaway, or at least has a good chance of making it.

Higuita – he has not been joining a lot of breakaways this year, but he does have a nose for picking good ones. He does have power on the flat, and Bora should play offensively tomorrow – their GC dream is over for now.

Evenepoel – who can beat him in the GC?

Roglic – he is looking better, but he will need to show me he can pose a real threat.


⭐⭐⭐⭐ Vine

⭐⭐⭐ Padun, Pinot

⭐⭐ Hamilton, Soler, Higuita.

⭐ Evenepoel, Roglic, Taaramae, Arensman

Who will win?

Jay Vine will be my favorite.

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