Vuelta a Burgos 2022 – Stage 2
The one stage that could be categorized as a sprint stage. Starting in Vivar del Cid and finishing in Villadiego.
The finish
9 km out, there is a little kicker. It is uncategorized, but it is 1.3 km at 6%. The same finish was used back in 2020 but there were no splits and Gaviria won the stage. The climb is very regular but harder than Alto del Castillo. It is a lot about positioning, the road is narrow. If the teams with a sprinter are allowed to take the front, they can potentially block the road.
At the top, 7.5 km remains. A short plateau onto a short descent and a long run into the last right turn with just 250 meters left (roundabout). A lead-out is essential.
Weather
The last 50 km tomorrow are in very open and flat terrain. Passing only through small villages with a small exception from km 38 – 32 where they are in a forested and hilly area. 3 m/s or 10 km/h is not enough for echelons, but it would be worth monitoring wind gusts. Currently, they report up to 9 m/s or 33 km/h which should be more than enough. The problem is, they will constantly turn into a headwind
I think the best place would be with 22.5 km left where they leave Villadiego at the north of the city. A section of crosswind, a short section of headwind, then another crosswind section, cross-tailwind over the last climb and a tailwind to the finish.
How will the stage unfold?
There are a few ways the stage can play out. If the wind picks up, I could see it blow to pieces. If it does not pick up, then there should be teams in favor of pushing the pace on the climb – or at least try to distance a sprinter or two.
Looking at the stronger teams (Bahrain-Victorious), they do not have a lot of rouleurs. Who will have to sacrifice themselves for who? Bora-Hansgrohe has six riders present, Laas and Gamper will have to work overtime. Movistar has Sosa, who does poorly in windy and flat conditions, but Norsgaard and Cortina will be good wheels to sit on, so perhaps they can limit potential losses. For the first time, I can remember this season, INEOS does not bring a strong squad for echelons either and write off EF-Education too. There is one team, that I could see trying to. You guessed right, Quick-Step. If the wind picks up, my money is on them.
There is one sprinter they would like to drop too, Fernando Gaviria. Ballerini should be the favorite, on paper, if Gaviria is dropped (given Barbier is likely dropped). Gaviria was one of the sprinters in the Giro d’Italia this year, that climbed rather well. I think it will be tough to distance him.
Contenders
Gaviria – he won with a similar finish back in 2021, that year, it was a much stronger field. Given the way he climbed in Giro d’Italia earlier this year, I would be a bit surprised if he will be dropped tomorrow, but if the wind picks up, he could have GC duties. He has Trentin to lead him out, one of the best in the game.
Ballerini – it will be up to the wolfpack to drop Gaviria tomorrow. I think they could succeed if the wind was stronger, but they could hope he is poorly positioned at the bottom of the climb and pray the elastic will snap over the top.
Cortina – he should make it over the climb and fight for another good placement.
Dekker – he has not had the best season, but on paper, he is one of the fastest here in a flat sprint. Timo Roosen could be a very important helper tomorrow for him in the last 500 meters.
Laas – very fast on the line, but like Dekker, he has not had the best season as of now.
Aular – top-10 contender
Aberasturi – top-10 contender
Stars
⭐⭐⭐ Ballerini
⭐⭐ Gaviria, Cortina
⭐ Dekker, Trentin, Aberasturi
Who will win?
I will take a win for Ballerini. Quick-Step to do everything to drop the heavier sprinters on the last uncategorized climb mentioned.
