Tour de France 2022 – Stage 19
The last regular stage. A long day after two hard days in the Pyrenees. The sprinters, most of them, are still here which mean we should have a few teams wanting a bunch sprint.
The finale
There are a few hills 55 km out and 38 km out. If they are ridden hard enough, a team can easily make it difficult for the pure sprinters.
A closer look at the last five km below. It will be fairly simple but the last 600 meters are uphill at 3%.
Weather
A day with crosswind for the whole stage but not strong enough for echelons and boiling hot temperatures.
How will the stage unfold?
No GC teams will control the stage, that would be highly unlikely. The stage suits WvA very well so I have been thinking if JV will work for him, I just doubt it. He will likely join the morning breakaway. Quick-Step should work for Jakobsen, but it has been very tough the last few days. Alpecin-Deceuninck has Jasper Phillipsen, it is a good finish for him too. And for Mads Pedersen. It must be either Trek-Segafredo or Alpecin that work for the sprint.
Contenders
Phillipsen – he should still have something left and he did well in the sprint after the Alps. He does not have the best lead-out and he does not have a lot of helpers, so they will need help from other teams which I think they will get.
Pedersen – they still have most of their team intact and they should work for a bunch sprint. I imagine they are one of the team that also will work for a bunch sprint.
Wout van Aert – I’m unsure they will work for a bunch sprint but if it becomes a sprint, he will participate.
Jakobsen – I think the team will work for a bunch sprint tomorrow but I’m unsure if he can participate, it looks like he has been suffering the last few days.
Kristoff – he normally gets better the further they get into the race. He may come close but I doubt he can win.
Sagan – look above.
Mohoric – breakaway hope #1
Politt – breakaway hope #2
Who will win?
It is what we in Danish terms call a “møver spurt”. That means it suits Mads Pedersen very well, the run-ins with 3.4% are excellent for him.
