Tour de France 2022 – Stage 18

The last big day in the mountains. If you liked stage 11, you will like tomorrow’s stage. 4000 climbing meters and three very difficult climbs.

The route

The first half, roughly, is relatively flat. There are a few hills at the very start and as you can see after 43 km.

Then the climbing begins. Starting of with the Col d’Aubisque. The first 7 km are the easiest and the last 10 km are the toughest with an average of 8.2%.

A descent to the foot of Col de Spandelles. Another very demanding climb.

Then the Hautacam. A long and demanding climb with a tough middle section.

Weather

Another day with little wind and high temperatures.

How will the stage unfold?

This is the last day to gain time in the mountains and therefore I expect a big fight. It could already start on the Col d’Aubisque. It will be a big, big battle for the GC. I think it is realistic to assume a big breakaway will form tomorrow. Sattelite riders and people who want to win the stage. I just do not think they stand a chance. INEOS and UAE will be on the attack. The flat start also limits the chances of a breakaway since it makes it more difficult to jump in the break for the climbings. Pogacar will have the team set up the big attack and Pogacar will attack early.

Contenders

Pogacar – he must attack again. I am not sure how well the team will do tomorrow, they used a lot of energy today. But he will attack, the question is when. It will likely be a stage win for him, I think Jonas will gift the win to him.

Vingegaard – he looks unshakeable, but it is a tough day tomorrow and he is low on helpers. He will follow one wheel and it is the only wheel he needs to focus on. The way he has looked has been outstanding, he does not seem to have a bad day at all-

Pinot – breakaway hope #1

Woods – breakaway hope #2

Caruso – breakaway hope #3

Who will win?

Pogacar will win again tomorrow. He will try with every inch of his body to shake Jonas. In the end, they will finish together and Jonas will give the stage win.