Tour de France 2022 – Stage 10
After a much-needed rest day, both for riders and preview writers, the race continues. It is a short stage of 148.1 km with four categorized climbs – none of them particularly difficult. The stage has 2400 climbing meters but as it finishes uphill, none of the pure sprinters will survive.
Morning climb.
This should be the section where the breakaway forms. Most likely on the climb. 11.8 km at 3.2% is not much of a climb but it should be enough for the elastic to snap.
The last climb.
It is a long climb but not very steep. I think it is reasonable to divide it into three sections.
Km 0-8: 4.9%
Km 8-14: 1.9%
Km 14-21.5: 4.9%
Not very steep, and certainly not steep enough for GC action.
Weather
A headwind in the first 45 km and then a tailwind home. That makes it a fair bit tougher for the small climbers to get in the breakaway alone. We talk 10 km/h, so it is not that much. It also means a bit less efficient sitting on the wheel on the last climb. It will be another warm day without rain.
How will the stage unfold?
Two scenarios.
a) Breakaway
b) GC
The first one is the most obvious. None of the sprinters have any interest in the stage. Do any GC teams really want a sprint up against Pogacar on 5% at the finish? God no.
Why GC? It is a short day and easy to control. The long valley before the last climb is where the breakaway can lose time. It can be a GC day if anyone is foolish enough to think they can sneak in the breakaway and take the jersey off Pogacar. UAE will not have it.
Contenders
Wout van Aert – Let’s see what he is told tomorrow. On paper, he could win this from a breakaway and from a reduced bunch sprint. I do not think he has climbed that fantastic this season, but he is strong as an ox when it comes to joining the breakaway. I doubt he will be allowed to go in the morning move, with a big mid-week in the Alps.
Lutsenko – He is right on the thin line of being allowed in the morning breakaway. UAE likes to play it safe and who are we to blame. I like Lutsenko due to his big diesel. He has been going fairly well but still lost a fair bit of time and at the end of Tour du Suisse, he was fighting for stage wins.
Bora – Hansgrohe – it should be best suited for Kämna and Schachmann since the gradients are not too crazy. Play Schachmann defensively – he is fast on the line, and it could be a group sprint from the breakaway. Kämna to attack, but it will be much harder to pace and wait for riders to drop due to the low gradients.
Cattaneo – has been very active, he got the power to get in the morning break and the engine to stay away.
Kron – he can go very well when the gradients are not too steep but he has not been lucky in getting in the right breakaway despite trying many times. In a reduced sprint, he has a good shot too.
Cort – the second Dane here. Just like Kron, the gradients are good for him tomorrow but he spent a fair bit of energy in the first week. I still think he has something left.
Verona – big engine and good gradients for him. He is a big rider, but we will have to see if he has recovered from the effort on stage 9.
Teuns – I was a bit dissapointed with him on La Super Planche des Belles Filles. One can hope he is getting better the further we get into the race. He got the power to get in the morning break but the gradients on the last climb are not perfect for him.
Jungels – 2 for 2? I think the stage suits him.
Who will win?
I think 20 riders can win tomorrow. Therefore, I will go for Andreas Kron. The gradients are perfect for him and he has a good kick.
