Tour de France 2022 – Stage 6.
Now, for the first time in this edition, climbing! After five relatively flat stages, we have a day with hills. Around 2700 climbing meters, starting in Belgium and finishing in Longwy, very close to Luxembourg. Four hills near the end will determine the outcome. It is also a long stage with 219,9 km. Who wants to control? The finish was last used in 2017 – but it had an easier run-in.
The last four climbs.
Let’s be real – the first two are likely not going to make much of a difference. The peninsulate is the worst.
It is very, very steep. Starting with just 6 km left, one must assume this is where the main selection will happen. A hard 3-minute effort, a minute and some longer than the last climb on stage 4. Positioning is very vital ahead of this climb.
The last climb is not the hardest but the riders will have some heavy legs. Hardest in the first half before easing off in the second half.
Weather
A bit more windy tomorrow with around 7 m/s all day. Now, that is right on the verge of being enough for crosswinds. It will depend on how open the terrain is. The wind direction is perfect, with a cross-tailwind throughout the day. A small chance of rain and temperatures around 18 degrees.
How will the stage unfold?
After a breakaway win today, will we see another one tomorrow? The team with the yellow jersey took a big hit today with a puncture for Vingegaard and a crash for Roglic. Their rivals, INEOS, mainly the same for them and then we had Pogacar avoiding accidents but digging a bit deep. However, his team is falling apart – they are simply not good enough. They know tomorrow is not the day to take a lot of bonus seconds against your rivals. I would be really, really surprised to see any of the Big 3 ride all day for the stage win.
What today showed, is that Wout van Aert knows the yellow jersey is going to change hands sooner rather than later. If INEOS pulls all day, Pogacar and Roglic have a far better sprint for bonus seconds. So, who will chase? MvdP is having a bad start – it is not easy to do the Giro-Tour double for the first time and expect diamonds in the legs. It is too hard for sprinters too. If they control the stage, the GC teams will just push it on the 12% climb and drop him to take the bonus seconds.
Bora-Hansgrohe? I really doubt it. The first mountain test is on stage 7. A tailwind all day – perfect for the breakaway.
Contenders
I’m simply going to go with my gut and go for another breakaway stage. It is time to reserve some energy – there is a long way to Paris.
Mohoric – a stage above 200 km? This man should be the first you think of. He stayed with Caruso all day, tomorrow, the team should pay it off by letting him get his own shot. He is in fantastic shape, and do I need to tell you – he won two stage here last year.
Kämna – let’s see what the German has left in the tank after the Giro d’Italia. He lost a bit of time today, due to his chain dropping off. Vlasov was very well protected, an amazing job by the team. If he still has good legs after the Giro d’Italia, he will be a hard man to deal with.
Mollema – another Giro-Tour participant. He finished the Giro d’Italia off well and he won the Dutch TT Nationals. I think it is a good looking stage for him, but it is not easy to know how much he has left in the tank.
Bettiol – he has looked good ever since his 2nd place at the stage in Tour de Suisse. When he is in this type of form, he can climb very well. Stage 18 in the Giro d’Italia 2021 is recent proof of it. In a sprint, few can beat him from a small group.
Kron – the first Lotto rider. He was very good in Tour de Suisse, fighting for the yellow jersey the first five stages. A GT win would be very big for him, but he has a win last year in two WT-races. He has the attributes if the right break forms.
Wellens – tried today in the big group that was caught. It is a good day for the Belgian tomorrow and he is in good shape too. He already has a stage win in the Giro and Vuelta, tomorrow is a good looking stage if he wants to do the triple.
Bagioli – on paper, a fantastic stage for him. However, Quick-Step has been using him to pace at the front the last few days which means he may not be as fresh as some of the other contenders. In the Tour de France, it is the small marginals that will get you all the way.
Storer – he has been hiding at the back with Pinot the first five days. I think Planche des La Belles Filles will be a difficult win for him, it suits Pinot more – therefore, I think he will give it a good shot tomorrow. We all saw how great he is when he is out in front. His engine is enormous.
Pogacar – GC contender #1
Gaudu – GC contender #2
Who will win?
Matej Mohoric.
