Tour de France 2022 – Stage 3
The last stage in Denmark. The stage starts in Vejle, the city we normally have the Queen stage at PostNord Danmark Rundt. Unfortunately, we do not have a circuit involving Kidesvej, but we Danes see it on a regular basis.
The riders head south. They pass Jelling, the place Harald Bluetooth changed the history of Denmark. We changed from Pagan Vikings to Christianity. Moving further south to Kolding, Haderslev and Aabenraa – all the way down to Sønderborg.
A day towards Als. Lots of beautiful villages and plenty of fields. We have narrow roads here too, especially just south of Haderslev with 75 km left. This also means there are likely going to be sections that can be impacted by the wind.
The stage ends in Sønderborg. A city where 80% of the houses burnt down after the Prussian bombardment in 1864. It is a city situated in Slesvig and has changed hands between the Danes and now Germans. Since 1920, it has been a part of Denmark.
The finale in Sønderborg
Another stage with a corner with 750 meters left. I’m not sure how they will cut off this corner (see below), but you want to take the short way around the road furniture.
It is on a big road, but even more road furniture with 250 meters left. This means they probably won’t be using all three lanes on the run-up stretch but just use two lanes. A flat sprint. It is an easier finale than in stage 2, because the road is not bending near the finish line.
Weather
A day with mixed weather. The wind will stay calm which leaves a tiny change for echelons. There will be local rain showers, but not nearly as much rain will fall as in Copenhagen.
Contenders
Jakobsen – a bit messy by the Wolfpack. Not as organized as I thought they would be, but they did have to spend energy bringing Lampaert back to the front. It was quite easy to see that Jakobsen is the fastest man here, not something that has changed overnight. With the last corner 700 meters out, you can be sure they will be close to the front.
Phillipsen – boxed in a bit near the barriers yesterday. He had to let Quick-Step pass him which mean he started his sprint very far back. If you ask me, he looked to be the second-fastest in the peloton, he just sprinted very, very late.
Ewan – the pocket rocket had to break when Phillipsen finally started sprinting. He had a decent position yesterday, if you take into account he do not have a proper sprint train. If it is less chaotic today and he has a clear path, I still think he is one of the few that can challenge for the win.
Groenewegen – he started his sprint very far back too as he was boxed in a bit further back than Phillipsen. Tomorrow is another good shot for him, he is very quick, but Mezgec needs to be up there with him after the last corner to give him a proper lead-out.
Mads Pedersen – the Mads P sprint did not work out yesterday. 300 meters in a headwind is a bold thing to do. I doubt he has the speed to win, but he is very consistent and is still looking for vital bonus seconds.
Wout van Aert – he is just pure class. I doubt the finish in the afternoon suit him. His top speed is not fast enough, but he will always benefit from having a great lead-out man in Laporte and being very consistent.
Who will win?
It’s going to be 3/3 for the Wolfpack. A win for Jakobsen.
