With more riders not starting, the race is beginning to look like something completely different than we imagined a week ago. Today was less dramatic than I expected which means some riders need to go on the offensive tomorrow if they wish to win the overall.
Starting off downhill, there is a big chance the first breakaway forms on the first classified climb. If it forms there, expect a lot of strong climbers in there – just like today.
After this we have a downhill and a few more hills to conquer, but the outcome should be found at the very end.
Now, I am not sure if this climb is harder than the one today, but the last two kilometers are steeper. That should mean we see some GC action – someone will have to try.
Another day with little wind. Another day without rain. Another day with high temperatures.
How will the stage unfold?
It is difficult to find a scenario in a race with people abandoning every morning. The same can be said for tomorrow. What I must say is some riders need to put time into G tomorrow, otherwise, they will not win the overall title.
It will be up to ISUN and Bora-Hansgrohe to determine if the breakaway stands another chance. Personally, pre-race, I thought today was a better shot for the breakaway than today. Since it is only ISUN with a full team, I expect everything to be calm in the peloton until the finale climb. It gives the breakaway a good chance.
Fuglsang – he is not going to be comfortable going into a time trial against G with this time gap. The question is, how much does he need? I would say close to a minute. It will be difficult but not impossible. They need to set up a train at the bottom of the last climb and just drill it.
Higuita – the same boat as Fuglsang. Perhaps he is more interested in a stage win than the overall. He is not the best against the clock.
Thomas – in the perfect spot in a way, and in a bad spot too. If he can finish with Fuglsang and Higuita it is almost certain he will win overall, but that also means he will have to respond to attacks from both.
Pozzovivo – it’s a good climb for him. Another top result is on its way.
Pinot – breakaway hope #1
Izagirre – breakaway hope #2
Lutsenko – breakaway hope #3
Masnada – breakaway hope #4
Who will win?
I don’t the pack is strong enough to control all those wanting to get in the morning breakaway. I like what I saw from Lutsenko today, but foolish attempt. Pinot finishing with the best as well and Masnada going deep today. I will take a win for Izagirre. The form is good and dropped a lot of time today.