Tour du Suisse 2022 – Stage 4
On paper, the easiest stage so far. With under 2000 climbing meters, it should be a day for the sprinters but the organizers have put a climb quite close to the finish line. It almost looks like a replica of stage 2.
The key points.
A start with some hills takes to create the morning break. The first one is 1.3km at 6.3%, and the next climb is 3 km at 6.1%. It is not 100% certain the breakaway gets a gap on the climbs, but they will make sure it will only be strong riders getting away.
The next key sector is the final. Up and over Sattel, a very tough climb at 3 km, 8.5% or 4.7 km at 6.3%. A long descend of 10 km before the last four km on the flat.
Steinen Full climb.
Steinen steep section
Comparison of the climb to stage 1 and stage 2.
It is more difficult than the climb on the first stage – more similar too. What they had in common was a short, steep section and Challpass on stage 2 had a more regular gradient and were a long climb.
Weather
It will be another hot day, especially in the first half of the race before the temperatures are just above 20 degrees C. Wind from the West – tailwind for most of the day.
How will the stage unfold?
We have a few teams with a sprinter who might be keen to work for another one. Sagan took a win today, but mind you he had problems on both stage 1 and stage 2. Matthews had problems on the first stage aswell and BikeExchange came late to the front today. I really doubt Intermarché will do all the chasing they did today. It is also unlikely Coquard will survive the climb – Cofidis did not pull today.
I think there will be too few teams chasing and too many wanting to get in the breakaway despite the stage only having 1800 climbing meters more or less.
Contenders
EF – they have a good duo, but the main problem is, Bahrain is likely not going to let them get up the road. Bettiol and Powless are the two riders I’m thinking of, and Powless sits less than a minute behind Williams – but with a bit of luck, he may be lucky enough to sneak off. Bettiol sits just over two minutes down. He looks good, and he is a fantastic climber when he is going well. Both have a fast sprint as well.
DSM – SKA and Arndt are the two riders I’m looking at. SKA has a bit of a problem with the heat, but he should be a bit more used to it after a few days in Switzerland. He is a breakaway specialist. Arndt will be the rider who attacks before the last climb and powers over it. He is just two minutes down, which again is a problem to be let up the road. His third place in Rund um Köln tells us he is ready to fight for a stage here.
Quick-Step – most of them crashed today but all of them looked fine. Asgreen and Van Wilder are two very good options for a stage win but we will have to see if General-Evenepoel will let them get their own freedom. Both of them hit the deck as well and Asgreen looked like he was hurting. I certainly think Van Wilder could have a really good shot tomorrow. He was sixth on the first stage and lost four minutes today due to the crash that went down.
Lotto – a team with many options. Moniquet had good legs in GP des Kantons Aargau and was 25th on the first stage. De Gendt may have a few liters back of fine diesel in his legs, both of them losing around six minutes today. The last is Matthew Holmes. Now, this is an easier version of Willunga Hill, and just like De Gendt, the Giro d’Italia can have made him tired, but it is a climb at the end that suits him.
Covi – on the move the first day. Now six minutes behind. He finished the Giro d’Italia off with a bang and it looks like he has kept some of his form. It is a climb that suits him, and few would like to sprint against him on the line.
Vine – is he suffering because of the heat? I had expected him to be better on the first day when he made the breakaway after a very good performance in Norway. I think the flattish start is a bit of a concern, but nonetheless, he will be one of the hardest to drop on the climb if he is at the front.
Champoussin – rode very well in GP des Kantons Aargau. He took his first win last year on a hot day in the Vuelta. He is often very close to taking a stage victory whenever he gets up the road.
If it all gets back to a sprint? I doubt it will, GC riders will fancy their own chances of bonus seconds. Hirschi, Schachmann (if he is alright from the crash!) and Kron.
Who will win?
A rider from a team with multiple options – DSM. A stage win for Nikias Arndt who will attack before the climb while the rest of the breakaway looks at SKA.
