Giro d’Italia 2022 – Stage 21

A time trial in Verona, the same as we saw in 2019. There, we had a surprise winner – Chad Haga. These time trials are all about, who still has a good effort left in the legs.

The climb is perhaps the most important part. It is fairly similar to the uphill finish on stage 1, an effort that took around 8 minutes. I expect the same tomorrow.

The descend is short but very quick and flat. I imagine it will take 3 minutes.

If we assume the climb takes 8 minutes and the descend 3 minutes, we have approximately

11 minutes of flat
8 minutes of climbing
3 minutes of descending

That sums up the 22 minutes and 7 seconds Haga used in 2019. Furthermore, the first section (start -> intermediate checkpoint) took around 14 minutes last time, while from the intermediate and to the finish took around 8. At the intermediate point there were 9 riders within 12 seconds. All of them finished in the top 10 at the finish. The first sector is the most important.

Weather

The first rider is down the ramp at 13:55 and the last at 16:47. The weather from 13:00 – 18:00 is of importance. Crosswind for most of the stage, with less wind near the evening. It should suit the late starters.

Contenders

Mathieu van der Poel – his form is out of this world. I thought he would quit, but he says he is feeling better than in the first week. The flat, the climb and the descending. He will be hard to beat.

Magnus Cort – a man who has gotten better as the race evolved. He is good in this terrain, he can pull out bit numbers at the end od a Grand Tour. He will be fighting for the podium.

Arensman – he is normally great in these late TT s but he looked empty. Watch him surprise us tomorrow.

Foss – has he been saving himself or is he fatigued? He has been evasive of doing breakaways the last few days – I think he has a good ride up his sleeve.

Kelderman – how well has he recovered? Unlike most here, he has had to work his ass off for his GC man. I still think a top 10 is plausible.

Tulett – first GT. We will see how his legs respond. It is a food route for him.

Thomas de Gendt – he has been at the back of the peloton for some days now. I expect a big ride from him. He did very well here in the course in 2019.

Mauro Schmid – form is good and he still has something in the legs. I hope the young man gets a good result.

Sobrero – a rider who will fight for the podium tomorrow. He has been saving himself for a food result – expect him to fight for the podium.

Who will win?

I think it is only fair MvdP starts and ends with a win. Thank you everyone. Over and out.