Giro d’Italia 2022 – Stage 11

After a very interesting day, we are back on flat roads for what should be another sprint in Italy.

The finale

Big turn with 5 km left. A right turn with 1.8 km left, a bend in the road under the flamme rouge and a last bend in the road to the left with 300 meters to go. It is quite vital you are in a good position at the last corner.

Weather

Wind! This should be enough for echelons if the terrain allows it.

Echelons? In Italy!?

Last 90 km tomorrow. The first 25 km (starting at the bottom right corner) are going through cities and open fields. Constant change.

From what I see on Google Maps, the best point will be with 62.5 km – 59 km left. A short distance, but take a look. It is a straight crosswind, with gusts up to 12 m/s.

Following is 18.8 km of tailwind, which will make the elastic snap.

The riders then go through Carpi and Correggio. On the other side of Correggio, there are 19 km left. Here, we will have another go for 8.5 km until the reach Reggio Emilia.

Is it enough? It should be. The last 90 km will be very high paced and there are two very good sectors.

Contenders

With the potential of echelons, you better pick a rider that has the team to protect you.

Demare – he has missed an echelon this year in Paris – Nice stage 2. Given the team he has, he should be well protected. They are big riders who can put the power down on the flat. At the moment, he is going very well.

Cavendish – was dropped later than I anticipated. He did not look to suffer just as much. Ballerini, Schmid and Lerberghe are some big guys with good power. I doubt he will be caught at the back of the peloton. He would love to take another stage win.

Ewan – was dropped very early after giving some positive comments. Perhaps he knew he did not have the climbing legs to fight for the win and just sat up. De Gendt and Schwarzmann are both to very strong riders on the flat, but I could imagine him being caught out nonetheless.

Nizzolo – a classics rider, he loves these stages. Biermans, Brandle, Dowsett, De Marchi just to name a few. They have one of the best teams to protect him.

Gaviria – looked good today but was dropped at the same time Covi attacked. With just Richeze and potential GC duties (you never quite know with UAE), the team will likely have a tough day. Almeida did not make the split on Paris – Nice stage 2.

Girmay – what a win. Just like Demare and Almeida, he too missed the echelons in Paris – Nice earlier this year. They do not have a very good team to protect him – Aime de Gendt will have to work his ass off to see Girmay take another win.

Mathieu van der Poel – beaten today. It will need to be a very reduced bunch to see him win, but with De Bondt, Kriger and Riesebeek they have a strong team – they will not be caught out.

Who will win?

I doubt we will see prime Demare getting caught. It is an important day for the points jersey, and the Frenchman will win tomorrow.