Giro d’Italia 2022 – Stage 9
A fantastic stage. Blockhaus was last used back in 2017 where a crash before the climb crushed the hopes of Landa, Yates and Thomas. That stage had 3000 climbing meters, and was panflat before Blockhaus. Tomorrow, the organizers have added a hard start and Passo Lanciana must be conquered too, before Blockhaus.

The riders are moving further north. At the bottom of Passo Lanciano, they turn left, before making their way up Blockhaus.

Let’s look at the climbing
The day kicks off with three hills. It is perfect for the climbers who want to get in the breakaway.

Passo Lanciano via Pretoro Centro
The climb will be used to trim the peloton. I do doubt any GC men will make a move here.

Blockhaus
A difficult climb. I assume it will be paced in the first half and then the attacks will happen on the steep section in the second half, just like in 2017. It is vital to remember, that pacing at your own tempo can be beneficial too.

Weather
A day with almost no wind at all. But it will not be the blue skies we have grown accustomed to, there is a high chance of rain in the finale tomorrow. A small chance of thunder too. This is the time at 14:00 but it will only get worse as time goes by.

How will the stage unfold?
We have a tough start and that means a lot of riders want to get up the road. It is a prestigious stage to win. The main question is, what will Trek-Segafredo do? The last few days they have had riders in the breakaway, and they do not have the team to control the stage. They have used a lot of energy the last couple of days to defend the jersey. They will hope another team will help them do the chasing.
As for INEOS, they will get to the front mainly to stay out of trouble. They will control the final which starts at the bottom of Passo Lanciano. BikeExchange does not have the strength to control and they do not need to attack. The same goes for UAE, who has been active in the breakaways too. Bahrain-Victorious have been sending Poels up the road and without Tratnik, they lack a big engine to control. Then we have Movistar. For once, they do not seem to do any random chasing.
I think the break stands a decent chance, but it will be the GC riders who should have the highest chance. It is time to figure out who won’t win the Maglia Rosa.
Richard Carapaz – the man to beat tomorrow. INEOS has been very active and already looks dominant without any prober GC stage. I think they will try and replicate Movistars 2017 tactic for Quintana. Pace until they run out of helpers and then Carapaz will attack. He looked good on Etna.
Simon Yates – will have to respond to many attacks. I doubt we will see that many attacks if INEOS are pacing and then the strongest will be able to follow the inevitable attack someone will do. He is looked very strong so far, but I always have my doubts about Yates when we have these marathon days.
Joao Almeida – it is time to really see what he is made of. He struggled with these stages a few years back but I think it is something he has become stronger at. 5000 climbing meters should be on his limit.
Bardet – is looking better than we have seen in a long time. Arensman is a very important helper for him tomorrow, he should not be alone before Blockhaus. I do think Blockhaus is a good climb for him but my gut is telling me he can’t win this.
Landa – I do hope you do not get your chances destroyed by a motorbike at the roadside like in 2017. With Bilbao at his side, he has one of the strongest helpers here. He is normally very, very good at these stages. He should be one of the favorites tomorrow.
Kelderman – is a very, very consistent GC rider. He will pace himself smartly and finish in the top-10.
Carthy – on paper this is the perfect stage for him. We will have to see how much form he has found or he should chance focus on a stage win in the third week.
Sosa – is one of the purest climbers out there. We will have to see if the young climber stands a chance against the very best. His stage win in Vuelta Asturias Julio Alvarez Mendo was very dominant.
Tom Dumoulin – was third here in 2017. An unfortunate day on Etna, but a big win for his morale on stage 7. I could see him redeem himself, possibly from the breakaway.
Lorenzo Fortunato – another very pure climber. The hard start will make it easier to get into the breakaway.
Who will win?
I will take a win for Mikel Landa. Bilbao is a vital helper, and Landa seems to just get better the tougher it gets. Furthermore, he loves a bit of rain.