Giro d’Italia 2022 – Stage 8
This is another interesting stage. I do love stages with circuits, it simply creates a faster pace and a more interesting race to watch. The stage has 2130 climbing meters. It looks like a mini Tirreno-Adriatico stage.
Early climbs
Heading out of Napoli at noon, there are rolling terrain for anyone wanting to be in the morning break.
A deeper look at the circuit.
After 51.3 km of riding, the ridings jump right to the steepest of the descends. We have a circuit with three climbs. Two of them are almost connected, one acting as the main climb and the other as a “counter-attack” climb. The hardest one is the steepest. The lap is 19.2 km at they do it four times.
Monte di Procida
The longer of the two climbs. Ridden four times, the last time with 36 km left.
Via Petrinio
The climb has not got an official name, but I do like the look of this one. Four times climbed, the last time with 27.5 km left.
From the circuit to the finish line.
Remember the early climbs? This is them, just from the opposite direction.
The last five km
It is giving me small MSR vibes. A fairly simply descend, and a hairpin with 1 km to go.
Weather
The wind will be quite stronger than the last couple of days, with speeds up to 4 m/s. After all, we are close to the sea. It means a mix of wind on the circuit, and crosswinds on their way back to the finish in Napoli. Temperatures will be around 20 degrees C and a few clouds here and there. Some forecasts predict the wind to come from the SW around 17:00, which will give them a cross tailwind.
How will the stage unfold?
It is a sprinter vs breakaway rider matchup. A few of the sprinters could be interested, Girmay and Intermarché do have the strength to drop some of the pure sprinters. Nizzolo has been climbing well since Tour of the Alps and Demare is in fantastic shape at the moment. Potentially, I can see one team, Intermarché fully committing. FDJ does have the option but it might be optimistic and Israel – Premier Tech does have the option as well. It also means Quick-Step will not chase and a question mark is hanging over Ewan. It might be his best shot to be fair.
The stage is short and that means the pace will be high. The shorter the stage, the better for the breakaway. On the circuit, it will be difficult to take a lot of time. Constantly chasing on the flat, lowering the speed uphill not to drop your sprinter – and the breakaway will take a few seconds again. Tom & Jerry.
It means, in the end, I will go for a breakaway. The sprinters have not climbed overly impressive, and after 4700 climbing meters today and 5080 climbing meters tomorrow, they should perhaps worry about resting their legs.
MvdP – will start as the big favorite. If he gets in the morning break, he will be very happy. If he does not, the team will make it a hellish day for the other sprinters. If I was a DS, I would simply let him get up the road. If he gets in the break, I do think Oldani will be there with him. All eyes on MvdP may give Oldani a great day on his bike.
Magnus Cort – a good stage to test the legs fully. The goal has been a stage win in the last week, but the stage has the Danish Concorde written all over it. Not many can beat him after a stage like this. If it is a bunch sprint, he will sprint too as it will be reduced.
Andrea Vendrame – got the speed to challenge for a good result but he has not been very impressive uphill of late. He had a good run at the end of March but it is two months ago. He is the type of rider who has great legs one day and false through another.
Albanese – finished with the GC riders today. His form is very good. He can climb, he can sprint. This is, in my opinion, a very good stage for him to get a very good result for EOLO-Kometa.
UAE – pick a lottery ticket. Formolo today, but Ulissi and Covi was also active. One of the latter two will get the chance tomorrow. Both can sprint, and both can climb. I think Ulissi has looked best of the two.
Tulett – up there covering and trying to jump moves. Maybe he will have to save himself for Blockhaus, but I argue he will give 10% more on Blockhaus if he gets a stage win tomorrow. The TT is a clear indication of great legs.
De Marchi – tried a long solo move today… Jokes aside, proved he has the legs. He will be Israel Premier Tech’s card if Nizzolo finds it too hard.
De Gendt – warmed up today. It is great to see TDG just power off, unfortunately, the break was established very late today. He may be on Ewan duty!
Girmay – will be one to beat if Intermarché decides, and get some help, back in the bunch. He does not have the speed to beat Demare, Cav and Ewan but I think he will be confident against the rest. It could be an important day in the points classification. Otherwise, I hope they play Vliegen in the breakaway.
Nizzolo – is looking to be the best climbing pure sprinter. I just do not see the team having the ability to control the stage alone. They will look and hope Intermarché and potentially Lotto or FDJ can help.
Who will win?
This stage screams MvdP. He has to be my pick tomorrow for the third time in 8 days.
