Kuurne – Bruxelles – Kuurne 2022
The route has changed a little bit compared to last year. We have a bit more climbing and three new slopes – Kattenberg, Berg Ten Houte and Le Bourliquet. On the other hand, Oude Kwaremont has been removed with Kruisberg. Those used to be the hardest of the cobbled sectors. We have four cobbled sectors now and none of them are truly difficult.
Minor changes in the route, but the length is about the same.
Weather
The wind will be fairly mediocre tomorrow. It will blow with 5 m/s from the SE. This means the riders will primarily have headwinds in the first half of the race and a nice tailwind in the last half.
This means the harder part of the route will be with a tailwind, which should suit the guys who do not favor a sprint.
How will the race unfold?
The race is harder this year but the removal of the cobbled sections is not something I am fond off. I think the race will be fairly boring the first half due to the headwind. When they start gaining a tailwind, the next 40 km look like this.
We have a lot of steep climbs, the first two you see are not cobbled. Then they head on to Montée Saint-Laurent which is cobbled. With a tailwind, someone will be keen to attack if they do not have a sprinter.
From the end of the hard part, it is quite simple to get back to the finish before laps in Kortrijk.
Contenders
The winner will depend on the teams. Who wants a sprint and will form an alliance to bring back the attackers. Who wants to stay away? With a tailwind home, it is difficult for me to predict. Let us begin with the teams who want a sprint.
Merlier is the option for Alpecin-Fenix. One of the fastest men in the world. He was not very impressive in Algarve but he was the only one who could pose a threat to Jakobsen.
Kristoff will be the man for Intermarché. I think the change in the route is not a big problem for him, he is good after a hard day. It will be hard for him to win, but he is very consistent in these races. He has been on the podium three times here.
Ewan will be the spearhead for Lotto-Soudal. They bring a squad around him and he is climbing very well at the moment. Is he fast enough to beat Jakobsen in a bunch-sprint scenario? We might find out tomorrow.
AG2R bring the Belgian duo. Both looked good today. They want to attack and will do that tomorrow.
Quick-Step bring Jakosen, Lampy, Senechal and Stybar. Jakobsen is flying at the moment. I would love to see him battle it out against Ewan and Merlier, probably the three fastest men on two wheels. They will not simply pull for Jakobsen all day, they will follow the moves too.
Jumbo – Visma will not bring WvA tomorrow. They have a lot of quick riders, Laporte, Dekker and Teunissen for the sprints. They have Benoot for the attacks with TvdS. I think Benoot looked very good today but he is not the fastest in a sprint. I find it difficult to see a solo win.
Bahrain – Victorious want to make it as difficult as possible for Colbrelli. Mohoric looks to be the offensive option. Those two in the front group is good for many scenarious. Mohoric was another rider who I think looked good today.
UAE bring Trentin and Covi. Gaviria is on the startlist but it looked like a broken collarbone today. Trentin is doing good. They want a reduced bunch sprint too.
Stuyven is fast too. His dream scenario is to sprint from a reduced group.
Pidcock is looking better and better. I think less cobbles is good for him, because he is very punchy. He is very quick in a sprint too. I think he still need a few more race days but I think he will do very well tomorrow.
Küng has looked good this month. He is climb well and has a big engine. I see him as the only serious contender for a solo win.
Who will win?
It is difficult to say. I will stick to my gut feeling, it will not be a typical bunch sprint. I think the tailwind back will invite an attack race is the last 100 km.
Alpecin, Lotto, and Israel – Premier tech want a sprint. The other teams have more possibilities.
I will go out on a limb and take a win for Mohoric.
