2237 climbing meters.
A day for the sprinters. The finish in Lagao is has been used before, the last three times in 2018 (Groenewegen) and in 2019 + 2020 (Jakobsen). It is a boulevard sprint.
A roundabout with 1.1 km left. Quite simple, but the wind could well determine if you are to take the front early or use the slipstream to pass by the fading lead out men from other teams.
It will be a tailwind sprint.
It will be a day for the sprinters.
Jakobsen without Mørkøv. He looked very strong in Valencianna where he took two stage wins. This time, it will be Bert Van Lan Lerberghe doing the job. It might prove good – and he still has Lampy and Asgreen to move him in to a good position. Without Mørkøv, the odds are worse.
Merlier loves a tailwind sprint. He often starts at 250 meters out, but he too lacks a solid sprint train. He has done CX this winter and may have taken a break off the bike afterward. He is fast, on paper the only one to pose a threat Jakobsen.
Kristoff has not eaten too much salmon this winter. Intermarche have been good early this season. He lacks the pace of the two above mentioned but he has a prober lead-out. Given the Norweigan starts his sprint early, the tailwind should be in his favor.
Molano comes pretty much alone for the sprints. I think a victory for him will be hard.
Meeus should have some sort of support in the final but do train either. A top-5 for him seems to be a fair goal.
Coquard is going very well at the moment. A boulevard sprint is not his strong suit, but he has some support in the final. I think he could finish on the podium.
Who will win?
Fabio Jakobsen. I think Merlier is not 100%, which Jakobsen seems to be. A lot of sprinters do not have the best lead-out for this race but a tailwind, boulevard sprint suits the quickest. At the moment, that is Jakobsen.